In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of JAKKS Pacific, Inc. (NASDAQ:JAKK) by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not December 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for JAKKS Pacific by following the link below.
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.
5-year cash flow forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||$-3.00||$12.70||$12.36||$12.03||$11.71|
|Source||Analyst x1||Analyst x2||Est @ -2.66%||Est @ -2.66%||Est @ -2.66%|
|Present Value Discounted @ 17.05%||$-2.56||$9.27||$7.71||$6.41||$5.33|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$26m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.9%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 17.1%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$12m × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (17.1% – 2.9%) = US$86m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$86m ÷ ( 1 + 17.1%)5 = US$39m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$65m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of $2.82. Relative to the current share price of $1.67, the stock is quite undervalued at a 41% discount to what it is available for right now.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at JAKKS Pacific as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 17.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 2. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For JAKK, there are three pertinent factors you should look at:
- Financial Health: Does JAKK have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does JAKK’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of JAKK? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at email@example.com.