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JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. Just Beat EPS By 5.8%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

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Last week, you might have seen that JELD-WEN Holding, Inc. (NYSE:JELD) released its yearly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.4% to US$26.97 in the past week. JELD-WEN Holding reported US$4.2b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.90 beat expectations, being 5.8% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for JELD-WEN Holding


Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from JELD-WEN Holding's ten analysts is for revenues of US$4.52b in 2021, which would reflect a reasonable 6.8% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 104% to US$1.84. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$4.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.87 in 2021. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$29.10, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic JELD-WEN Holding analyst has a price target of US$33.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$22.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that JELD-WEN Holding's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.8% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 4.9%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 6.1% next year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that JELD-WEN Holding is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to sales forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$29.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for JELD-WEN Holding going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for JELD-WEN Holding that you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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