Next week marks the end of Q3 and the beginning of the last quarter of the year, Yahoo Finance’s Rebecca Stropoli, Michael Santoli, Jeff Macke and Lauren Lyster joined together to let you know what the headlines will be and how to play the new quarter.
Employment numbers will be released at 8:30am on Friday, October 3rd. While August’s headline payrolls number was particularly weak, says Yahoo Finance editor Rebecca Stropoli, August numbers tend to be revised upwards-- something to look out for in the report.
Another number to consider? 207,000. That’s the 3-month moving average of payrolls growth. According to Stropoli, if we get a number below that we’ll be looking at back-to-back “disappointing reports, and probably a lot of headlines on the myth of the jobs recovery.”
Still, economists are predicting that September numbers will show improvement.
The end of Q3
“This is going to be the last week that companies have to say that they missed,” says Jeff Macke. He’s looking at retailers in particular, they don’t report in October but they’ll have to get expectations set for the holiday season this month.
Macke is honing in on Target and Walmart. For Target, Macke wants to “look at them and see how they’re recovering because they got tainted with that credit card debacle in a way Home Depot never did.” As for Walmart, “Walmart is America whether we like that or not,” he says.
The Fed and Inflation
Personal spending and income numbers are released on Monday September 29th, and they’ll give us more insight on the current level of inflation. “That was actually pretty low year-over-year in July,” says Michael Santoli, “and next week we’re going to hear from Fed officials…what I’m going to be listening for is whether they give a nod towards tightening financial conditions, which is there code for a mini-crash in junk bonds right now.”
Santoli says he’s also looking for what might be the counterpoint to the market tantrum that we’ve seen in the past week.