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Jobs report, Apple WWDC — What to know in the week ahead

Heidi Chung
Reporter

It is a busy week ahead for market watchers.

Monday through Friday, tech giant Apple (AAPL) will be hosting its Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in San Jose, California. Apple’s annual WWDC is typically regarded as one of the biggest events of the year for the iPhone maker. This week, Apple is expected to be making key announcements about new updates for its different operating systems.

[Read more: WWDC 2019 preview: Everything coming to the iPhone, Mac and Apple Watch]

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be holding its Monetary Policy Strategy, Tools, and Communication Practices Conference in Chicago this week. On Tuesday at 9:55 a.m. ET, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will be giving a speech, and Vice Chairman Rich Clarida is scheduled to speak on Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that the Fed’s conference will be more of a brainstorming session. Credit Suisse echoed Bank of America’s prediction. “Discussions of alternative policy frameworks will be central, although we do not expect any announcement of changes,” the firm wrote in a note Thursday.

The Fed will also be releasing its Beige Book at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. “The Beige Book prepared for the 18-19 June FOMC meeting will provide important context for the business response to the recent escalation of US-China trade tensions,” Nomura said in a note Friday. “We expect comments from local business leaders to reflect increased uncertainty about the economic outlook. In addition to trade policy uncertainty, we will look for comments on whether firms expect to pass on the cost of higher tariffs to consumers and the strength of retail sales and overall economic activity.”

Finally on Friday, the Labor Department will release the May jobs report. Economists polled by Bloomberg are expecting that the U.S. economy added 180,000 jobs during the month, down from the 263,000 jobs added in April. They expect that the unemployment rate stayed steady at 3.6%.

“Payrolls growth has been volatile to start the year, rebounding strongly in April after appearing to slow in the first quarter. We continue to expect some moderation, on trend, and are forecasting a slowdown to 165K in May,” Credit Suisse said. “Overall, with growth momentum likely to slow this year, we expect job gains to moderate to a mid-100s pace.”

Nomura also anticipates that about 165,000 jobs were added during May. “We expect payback from unusually warm weather in April to weigh on employment growth during May, but forecast a still-healthy 165k increase in nonfarm payroll employment. Weather-sensitive industries such as leisure & hospitality and construction both experienced large increases in employment during April as warmer-than-usual temperatures likely pulled forward seasonal hiring.”

In addition, ING makes the point that the markets might be getting too ahead of themselves when it comes to pricing in a recession in the U.S. over the next couple of years. “The dataflow has remained solid so far, and that should be the general trend over the coming week. That said, we don’t think Friday’s key jobs report will cause a massive rethink among investors. Jobs growth could slip back after a bumper reading in April, although if it does, we think it will be more a function of constrained supply, rather than weaker demand.”

Economic calendar

Monday: Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI, May (50.6 expected, 50.6 prior); ISM Manufacturing, May (53.0 expected, 52.8 prior); ISM Prices Paid, May (51.0 expected, 50.0 prior); Construction Spending month-on-month, April (+0.4% expected, -0.9% prior)

Tuesday: Factory Orders, April (-0.9% expected, +1.9% prior); Durable Goods Orders, April (-2.1% prior); Durable Goods excluding Transportation, April (0.0% prior)

Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended May 31 (-3.3% prior); ADP Employment Change, May (185,000 expected, 275,000 prior); Markit U.S. Services PMI, May (50.9 expected, 50.9 prior); Markit U.S. Composite PMI, May (50.9 prior); ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, May (55.5 expected, 55.5 prior)

Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims, week ended June 1 (215,000 expected, 215,000 prior); Continuing Claims, week ended May 25 (1.663 million expected, 1.657 million prior); Trade Balance, April (-$50.5 billion expected, -$50 billion prior); Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, week ended June 2 (60.8 prior)

Friday: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, May (180,000 expected, 263,000 prior); Change in Manufacturing Payrolls, May (5,000 expected, 4,000 prior); Unemployment Rate, May (3.6% expected, 3.6% prior); Wholesale Inventories month-on-month, April (0.7% expected, 0.7% prior)

Earnings calendar

Monday: Box (BOX) after market close

Tuesday: GameStop (GME), Salesforce.com (CRM) after market close

Wednesday: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Campbell Soup (CPB) before market open; Five Below (FIVE), MongoDB (MDB), Stitch Fix (SFIX) after market close

Thursday: Signet Jewelers (SIG) before market open; Beyond Meat (BYND), DocuSign (DOCU), Zoom Video (ZM) after market close

Friday: N/A

Heidi Chung is a reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @heidi_chung.

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