Blade Air Mobility, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDE) shareholders will have a reason to smile today, with the analysts making substantial upgrades to this year's forecasts. Consensus estimates suggest investors could expect greatly increased statutory revenues and earnings per share, with analysts modelling a real improvement in business performance. Investors have been pretty optimistic on Blade Air Mobility too, with the stock up 12% to US$9.40 over the past week. Could this upgrade be enough to drive the stock even higher?
After the upgrade, the five analysts covering Blade Air Mobility are now predicting revenues of US$81m in 2022. If met, this would reflect a huge 110% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 32% to US$0.59 per share. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$68m and losses of US$0.70 per share in 2022. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a sizeable increase to their revenue forecasts while also reducing the estimated loss as the business grows towards breakeven.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$14.80, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Blade Air Mobility at US$16.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Blade Air Mobility's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Blade Air Mobility's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 110% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 52% over the past year. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 25% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Blade Air Mobility to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The highlight for us was that the consensus reduced its estimated losses this year, perhaps suggesting Blade Air Mobility is moving incrementally towards profitability. Fortunately, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates sales are expected to perform better than the wider market. Some investors might be disappointed to see that the price target is unchanged, but we feel that improving fundamentals are usually a positive - assuming these forecasts are met! So Blade Air Mobility could be a good candidate for more research.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Blade Air Mobility analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.