In Just A Few Hours We Will See How The Chinese Economy Is Doing
Chinese economic data has disappointed markets in the past few months. Here's a look at April, and May.
China will release its Q2 GDP data at 10 p.m. ET. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for GDP to rise 7.5% year-over-year, and for real GDP to rise 1.7% quarter-over-quarter.
This isn't the only data out tonight though. We also have industrial production, fixed asset investment (FAI) and retail sales for June out at 10 p.m. ET.
Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for industrial production to rise 9.1% YoY, year-to-date FAI ex-rural to rise 20.2% YoY, and retail sales to rise 12.9% YoY.
We've already seen a slump in exports, driven by a government crackdown on speculative Forex inflows and a weak global economic environment. Producer prices were also negative for the 16th straight month highlighting the nation's excess capacity problems. The recent liquidity squeeze in China is also expected to weigh on economic growth.
Bank of America's Ting Lu however wrote that China benefits from the Li Keqiang put i.e. the Chinese premier will be unwilling to let growth slip below 7.5%.
Economists have however been lowering their GDP forecasts as this chart from Bloomberg BRIEF's Michael McDonough shows:
Michael McDonough/Bloomberg BRIEF
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