Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) releases research on the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, which started ahead of schedule for a sixth consecutive year with the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur on May 16.
KBRA believes that some regional insurers could face additional headwinds if early season forecasts come to fruition. In addition, any hurricane landfall could further push reinsurance pricing to less manageable levels for some insurance companies.
In April, hurricane forecasters at the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project team—one of the leaders and pioneers of hurricane forecasting—predicted six named storms and eight hurricanes in 2020, of which four will be major hurricanes. The long-term average Atlantic hurricane season has 12.1 named storms, 6.4 hurricanes, and 2.7 major (Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricanes. For the past four years, there has been an average of 16.3 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.8 major hurricanes. There has also been four consecutive years with a Category 5 hurricane, with two in 2017 and 2019.
As sea levels continue to rise, storm surge flooding is expanding further inland. And as coastal area population density grows, storm surge flooding is causing greater losses. Regardless of what the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season brings, KBRA believes that carriers must assess the long-term impact of climate change on property portfolios as it relates to increases in the severity and frequency of wildfires, stalling hurricanes, and coastal and non-coastal flooding.
Click here to view the report.
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About KBRA and KBRA Europe
KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an NRSRO. In addition, KBRA is designated as a designated rating organization by the Ontario Securities Commission for issuers of asset-backed securities to file a short form prospectus or shelf prospectus. KBRA is also recognized by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners as a Credit Rating Provider and is a certified Credit Rating Agency (CRA) with the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA). Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited is registered with ESMA as a CRA. Kroll Bond Rating Agency Europe Limited is located at 6-8 College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.
Fred DeLeon, Senior Director
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Donna Halverstadt, Managing Director
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Peter Giacone, Managing Director
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Tina Bukow, Managing Director
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