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KeyBanc: Harley-Davidson Registration Numbers Show Cold Start To 2019

Elizabeth Balboa

Harley-Davidson Inc (NYSE: HOG) has been rather quiet since its January earnings miss, and one analyst team expects continued coasting.

The Analyst 

KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brett Andress maintained a Sector Weight rating on Harley-Davidson.

The Thesis

By KeyBanc’s assessment, Harley-Davidson’s international growth continues to slow.

Countries accounting for 70 percent of the global market recorded a 19.2-percent decline in Harley registrations this January, Andress said in a Thursday note. Last year, registrations rose 19.1 percent over the same period.

“While one month does not make a trend, January declines in our monthly reporting countries came in worse than we anticipated, though compares do ease meaningfully in [February and March]," the analyst said. 

The Asia-Pacific region saw broad-based drops for a second consecutive month, including a high-double-digit decline in India.

Latin America sales moderated — with particular weakness in Brazil — and Western Europe reported softness as the U.K. suffered pressure.

“Flowing monthly trends forward (and assuming sustained trends in quarterly-reporting countries) puts our index in the mid single-digit/high single-digit range for [the first quarter of 2019], implying HOG's reported international retail in the low single-digit/mid single-digit range," Andress said. 

Harley-Davidson’s next quarterly report is slated for release April 23.

Price Action

Harley-Davidson shares were up 0.43 percent at $37.43 at the close Thursday and were trading slightly higher premarket Friday. 

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Latest Ratings for HOG

Date Firm Action From To
Oct 2018 Citigroup Maintains Buy Buy
Oct 2018 BMO Capital Maintains Market Perform Market Perform
Oct 2018 Argus Maintains Buy Buy

View More Analyst Ratings for HOG
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