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What Kind Of Share Price Volatility Should You Expect For National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ)?

Simply Wall St

If you're interested in National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ), then you might want to consider its beta (a measure of share price volatility) in order to understand how the stock could impact your portfolio. Modern finance theory considers volatility to be a measure of risk, and there are two main types of price volatility. The first category is company specific volatility. This can be dealt with by limiting your exposure to any particular stock. The second type is the broader market volatility, which you cannot diversify away, since it arises from macroeconomic factors which directly affects all the stocks on the market.

Some stocks are more sensitive to general market forces than others. Beta can be a useful tool to understand how much a stock is influenced by market risk (volatility). However, Warren Buffett said 'volatility is far from synonymous with risk' in his 2014 letter to investors. So, while useful, beta is not the only metric to consider. To use beta as an investor, you must first understand that the overall market has a beta of one. Any stock with a beta of greater than one is considered more volatile than the market, while those with a beta below one are either less volatile or poorly correlated with the market.

See our latest analysis for National Beverage

What we can learn from FIZZ's beta value

Given that it has a beta of 1.30, we can surmise that the National Beverage share price has been fairly sensitive to market volatility (over the last 5 years). If the past is any guide, we would expect that National Beverage shares will rise quicker than the markets in times of optimism, but fall faster in times of pessimism. Many would argue that beta is useful in position sizing, but fundamental metrics such as revenue and earnings are more important overall. You can see National Beverage's revenue and earnings in the image below.

NasdaqGS:FIZZ Income Statement, October 28th 2019

How does FIZZ's size impact its beta?

National Beverage is a reasonably big company, with a market capitalisation of US$2.4b. Most companies this size are actively traded with decent volumes of shares changing hands each day. It has a relatively high beta, suggesting it may be somehow leveraged to macroeconomic conditions. For example, it might be a high growth stock with lots of investors trading the shares. It's notable when large companies to have high beta values, because it usually takes substantial capital flows to move their share prices.

What this means for you:

Since National Beverage tends to moves up when the market is going up, and down when it's going down, potential investors may wish to reflect on the overall market, when considering the stock. In order to fully understand whether FIZZ is a good investment for you, we also need to consider important company-specific fundamentals such as National Beverage’s financial health and performance track record. I highly recommend you dive deeper by considering the following:

  1. Future Outlook: What are well-informed industry analysts predicting for FIZZ’s future growth? Take a look at our free research report of analyst consensus for FIZZ’s outlook.
  2. Past Track Record: Has FIZZ been consistently performing well irrespective of the ups and downs in the market? Go into more detail in the past performance analysis and take a look at the free visual representations of FIZZ's historicals for more clarity.
  3. Other Interesting Stocks: It's worth checking to see how FIZZ measures up against other companies on valuation. You could start with this free list of prospective options.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.