Need To Know: The Consensus Just Cut Its AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAB) Estimates For 2023
One thing we could say about the analysts on AnaptysBio, Inc. (NASDAQ:ANAB) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic. At US$19.53, shares are up 4.8% in the past 7 days. Investors could be forgiven for changing their mind on the business following the downgrade; but it's not clear if the revised forecasts will lead to selling activity.
After this downgrade, AnaptysBio's eight analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$12m in 2023. This would be a notable 8.6% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to balloon 29% to US$6.68 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$13m and US$6.36 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
View our latest analysis for AnaptysBio
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$30.33, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AnaptysBio at US$45.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$22.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AnaptysBio's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 12% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 27% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 20% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that AnaptysBio is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at AnaptysBio. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that AnaptysBio's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of AnaptysBio going forwards.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple AnaptysBio analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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