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Need To Know: The Consensus Just Cut Its Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ARCT) Estimates For 2022

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The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:ARCT), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

After this downgrade, Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings' ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$36m in 2022. This would be a sizeable 131% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 33% to US$5.04. Yet prior to the latest estimates, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$71m and losses of US$4.69 per share in 2022. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

View our latest analysis for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings

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There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$62.36, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings analyst has a price target of US$140 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$16.00. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. For example, we noticed that Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 205% growth to the end of 2022 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 30% a year over the past three years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 12% per year. Not only are Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.