Need To Know: The Consensus Just Cut Its ImmunoGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:IMGN) Estimates For 2023
Today is shaping up negative for ImmunoGen, Inc. (NASDAQ:IMGN) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to next year's forecasts. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative. The stock price has risen 9.0% to US$4.96 over the past week. It will be interesting to see if this downgrade motivates investors to start selling their holdings.
After this downgrade, ImmunoGen's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$122m in 2023. This would be a substantial 28% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are forecast to hold steady at around US$0.92. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$157m and US$0.83 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
View our latest analysis for ImmunoGen
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$11.99, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ImmunoGen, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$4.00 per share. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely differing views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting ImmunoGen's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 22% annualised growth to the end of 2023 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 6.2% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 14% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect ImmunoGen to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on ImmunoGen after today.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ImmunoGen going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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