SkiStar AB (publ) (STO:SKIS B) shares fell 3.2% to kr120 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Sales were dismal, with revenues of kr125m coming in some 41% below what analysts were forecasting. The only bright spot was that statutory losses of kr3.03 per share were 18% smaller than analysts had predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts' latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for SkiStar from only analyst is for revenues of kr2.73b in 2020, which is an okay 5.1% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to surge 34% to kr6.22. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of kr2.70b and earnings per share (EPS) of kr6.30 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
With analysts reconfirming their revenue and earnings forecasts, it's surprising to see that the price target rose 20% to kr130. It looks as though analysts previously had some doubts over whether the business would live up to their expectations.
Further, we can compare these estimates to past performance, and see how SkiStar forecasts compare to the wider market's forecast performance. It's pretty clear that analysts expect SkiStar's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 5.1%, compared to a historical growth rate of 9.1% over the past five years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that analysts still expect SkiStar to grow slower than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that SkiStar's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. Analysts also upgraded their price target, suggesting that analysts believe the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for SkiStar going out as far as 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of SkiStar's balance sheet, and whether we think SkiStar is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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