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Shareholders might have noticed that Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.3% to US$44.05 in the past week. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$19m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.29 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following the latest results, Kymera Therapeutics' seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$69.4m in 2021. This would be a major 41% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 12% from last year to US$1.51. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$82.6m and US$0.81 per share in losses. There's been a definite change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a notable cut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.
There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$74.67, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Kymera Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$85.00 and the most bearish at US$64.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Kymera Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 58% annualised growth rate until the end of 2021 being well below the historical 693% growth over the last year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 14% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Kymera Therapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$74.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Kymera Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Kymera Therapeutics going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Kymera Therapeutics you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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