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Lemonade Drops 5% On First Earnings Report As Guidance Falls Short

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Shares in Lemonade (LMND) dropped 5% in Tuesday’s after-hours trading after the digital insurance company reported its inaugural earnings following the July 2 IPO. 2Q adjusted gross profit was modestly ahead of Street estimates, with KPIs beating substantially.

Specifically, Q2 GAAP EPS of -$1.77 beat Street forecasts by $0.41 while revenue of $29.9M surged 116.7% year-over-year, and topped consensus expectations by $0.59M.

Gross Earned Premium came in up 121% year-over-year and 4% above Street estimates, vs. 1Q’s 143%. And 2Q adjusted gross profit rose 203% year-over-year, yielding a 20% ratio of adjusted gross profit to gross earned premium.

IFP, defined as the aggregate annualized premium for customers as of the period end date, soared 115% to $155.1M compared to the same quarter last year, primarily due to an 84% rise in the number of customers, as well as a 17% increase in premium per customer. Indeed total customer count was up 84% at 814,160 vs 2Q 2019.

However, looking forward, LMND is guiding for Q3 revenue of $14M-$15M, falling short of the $15.2M consensus and $29.9M revenue delivered during the second quarter. That’s alongside revenue for the full year of $86M-$88M- again coming slightly below the $88.9M expected by consensus.

“Q3 is, historically, a moving season, and has typically been our strongest growth quarter as many people move in time for the new school year. The pandemic has put school openings in question – and we don’t know how this may change the migratory patterns of Americans” the company commented. (See LMND stock analysis on TipRanks).

Shares in Lemonade are trading down 9% since the IPO and the Street has a cautious Hold consensus on the stock’s outlook. That’s with an average analyst price target of $81, indicating upside potential of 29%.

“We see shares as fully valued at this level and encourage investors to wait for a better entry point” explains Oppenheimer’s Jason Helfstein, adding that LMND shares currently trade at 41x 2022E EV/GP, a 258% premium to peers, though LMND is growing ’19-‘22E gross profit 268% faster.

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