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In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities

·11 min read
Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

Rising home values can quickly transition a reasonable housing market into the type of real estate monster that has consumed places like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York. While the idea of affordable housing in an urban center isn't implausible for plenty of Americans living in some areas, that's rapidly changing in many places.

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GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which major U.S. cities are on track to lose their label of affordability. GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow's September 2022-23 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of 537 U.S. cities that currently have home prices below the national median of $325,677, with those surpassing the national median in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed "not affordable."

Granted, this approach comes with some caveats. Projecting into the future based on a single year's growth rate could ultimately paint an unfair picture in markets where the current rate is an anomaly. Additionally, Zillow's estimated home values don't necessarily reflect the list prices or sale prices in each market.

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Still, identifying the areas that are outpacing the national average for growth can help shed light on the cities where you should buy a home sooner rather than later. If you end up living in one of these cities 10 years down the line, you might want to check out other, more affordable real estate markets instead.

will_snyder_ / Getty Images/iStockphoto
will_snyder_ / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Roseburg, Oregon

  • January 2022 home value: $321,807

  • One-year projected growth rate: 20.4%

Roseburg is in the Hundred Valleys of the Umpqua in southwestern Oregon, known for having seasonal, but pleasant, temperatures - never too hot or too cold. It sits 123 miles north of the California border.

kaceyb / Getty Images/iStockphoto
kaceyb / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2023

  • Projected home value: $387,456

  • U.S. median projected home value: $382,019

  • Difference in value: $5,437

*Oakland, Oregon pictured.

Steven Liveoak / Shutterstock.com
Steven Liveoak / Shutterstock.com

Auburn, Alabama

  • January 2022 home value: $321,643

  • One-year projected growth rate: 19.4%

Auburn, in the eastern part of central Alabama, is just 35 miles west of Columbus, Georgia, and a 3 ½-hour drive from vacation spots along the Gulf of Mexico. Auburn University is the city's largest employer, with about 7,100 people working there

disorderly / Getty Images/iStockphoto
disorderly / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2023

  • Projected home value: $384,042

  • U.S. median projected home value: $382,019

  • Difference in value: $2,023

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Fayetteville, Arkansas

  • January 2022 home value: $307,909

  • One-year projected growth rate: 23.1%

Another college town, Fayetteville is home to the University of Arkansas. Bill and Hillary Clinton called Fayetteville home before he was elected the state's governor, and then president of the United States, and the home they lived in is now a museum preserving memories of their time in the city.

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2024

  • Projected home value: $466,593

  • U.S. median projected home value: $448,108

  • Difference in value: $18,485

SeanPavonePhoto / iStock.com
SeanPavonePhoto / iStock.com

Knoxville, Tennessee

  • January 2022 home value: $299,342

  • One-year projected growth rate: 23.1%

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2024

  • Projected home value: $453,611

  • U.S. median projected home value: $448,108

  • Difference in value: $5,503

Patricia Elaine Thomas / Shutterstock.com
Patricia Elaine Thomas / Shutterstock.com

Dallas

  • January 2022 home value: $308,661

  • One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%

Dallas, with 1.3 million residents, is the third-largest city in Texas but also the ninth-largest in the United States. It boasts many firsts. The nation's first planned shopping center (Highland Park Village Shopping Center) and convenience store (7-Eleven) opened in Dallas, and the frozen margarita and precursor to the microchip were invented there.

Trong Nguyen / Shutterstock.com
Trong Nguyen / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2024

  • Projected home value: $462,429

  • U.S. median projected home value: $448,108

  • Difference in value: $14,321

Chris Rubino / Shutterstock.com
Chris Rubino / Shutterstock.com

Tucson, Arizona

  • January 2022 home value: $307,232

  • One-year projected growth rate: 21.5%

Tucson is an hour north of the border with Mexico, and it lays claim to some of the best Mexican food in the U.S. Start on 12th Avenue in the city to begin your tour of what is called The Best 23 Miles of Mexican food.

Tim Roberts Photography / Shutterstock.com
Tim Roberts Photography / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2024

  • Projected home value: $453,544

  • U.S. median projected home value: $448,108

  • Difference in value: $5,436

chapin31 / iStock.com
chapin31 / iStock.com

Pueblo, Colorado

  • January 2022 home value: $291,995

  • One-year projected growth rate: 22.6%

A city of about 112,000 people, Pueblo is located along the Arkansas River in Colorado, which once was the boundary between the U.S. and Mexico. The Colorado State Fair has been held in Pueblo since 1872.

J. Michael Jones / Shutterstock.com
J. Michael Jones / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025

  • Projected home value: $538,080

  • U.S. median projected home value: $525,631

  • Difference in value: $12,449

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

Fort Worth, Texas

  • January 2022 home value: $292,963

  • One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%

A city of about 920,000, Fort Worth grew by more than 175,000 people between the censuses of 2010 and 2020. Fun fact: 60 percent of America's paper money is printed at the U.S. Bureau of Engraving and Printing Western Currency Facility in Fort Worth.

Christopher Boswell / Shutterstock.com
Christopher Boswell / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025

  • Projected home value: $537,226

  • U.S. median projected home value: $525,631

  • Difference in value: $11,595

Susilyn / Shutterstock.com
Susilyn / Shutterstock.com

Lakeland, Florida

  • January 2022 home value: $263,818

  • One-year projected growth rate: 25.6%

Lakeland is located along Interstate 4 between Tampa and Florida. It's name is appropriate. Lakeland has 38 named lakes within its 74.4 square miles.

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $656,543

  • U.S. median projected home value: $616,565

  • Difference in value: $39,978

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

Daytona Beach, Florida

  • January 2022 home value: $258,118

  • One-year projected growth rate: 25.5%

Daytona Beach is known as the home of the Daytona International Speedway and the Daytona 500, but even amateur drivers have a spot in the city. Visitors are allowed to drive - slowly - along designated areas of the 23-mile-long white-sand beaches.

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $640,314

  • U.S. median projected home value: $616,565

  • Difference in value: $23,749

Arizona: 3.00% APY
Arizona: 3.00% APY

Yuma, Arizona

  • January 2022 home value: $266,546

  • One-year projected growth rate: 24.1%

Yuma has about 95,000 residents, and there's a good many of them help to put some of the food on your table. According to the city's tourism website, Yuma is the "winter vegetable capital of the world" and produces 91% of the leafy greens served in North America each winter. Instead of watching the ball drop on New Year's Eve, you can watch the Iceberg Lettuce Drop.

Ken Lund / Flickr.com
Ken Lund / Flickr.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $632,207

  • U.S. median projected home value: $616,565

  • Difference in value: $15,642

Brian Stansberry / Wikimedia Commons
Brian Stansberry / Wikimedia Commons

Crossville, Tennessee

  • January 2022 home value: $262,886

  • One-year projected growth rate: 24.1%

In 12,000-resident Crossville, residents can test their physical and mental skills. Known as the Golf Capital of Tennessee, it has nine courses. And, Crossville is the headquarters of the United States Chess Federation, too.

Swarmcatcher / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Swarmcatcher / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $623,526

  • U.S. median projected home value: $616,565

  • Difference in value: $6,961

Residential subdivision in Murfreesboro, Tennessee.

B Brown / Shutterstock.com
B Brown / Shutterstock.com

Pocatello, Idaho

  • January 2022 home value: $289,072

  • One-year projected growth rate: 21.6%

Pocatello is in the southeastern portion of Idaho at an altitude of 4,448 feet. Home of Idaho State University, the city is along the Oregon Trail, in the western foothills of the Rocky Mountains.

Ric Schafer / Shutterstock.com
Ric Schafer / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $632,034

  • U.S. median projected home value: $616,565

  • Difference in value: $15,469

Idaho Falls, Idaho pictured.

virsuziglis / Getty Images/iStockphoto
virsuziglis / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Jacksonville, Florida

  • January 2022 home value: $281,915

  • One-year projected growth rate: 21.8%

At 840 square miles, Jacksonville is the largest city in the continental United States in terms of land mass. About 950,000 people live in the city - almost twice the amount of residents of Florida's second-largest city in terms of population, Miami.

Ron_Thomas / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Ron_Thomas / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $620,451

  • U.S. median projected home value: $616,565

  • Difference in value: $3,886

Ocala, Fla
Ocala, Fla

Ocala, Florida

  • January 2022 home value: $230,684

  • One-year projected growth rate: 25.6%

Ocala, the first town in Marion County in the early 1840s, has preserved much of its past in the Ocala Historic Downtown Square. Boutiques, restaurants, galleries and more fill the spaces. About 64,000 people live in Ocala

Michael Warren / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Michael Warren / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2028

  • Projected home value: $905,639

  • U.S. median projected home value: $848,350

  • Difference in value: $57,289

Lorraine Boogich / Getty Images
Lorraine Boogich / Getty Images

Cookeville, Tennessee

  • January 2022 home value: $262,204

  • One-year projected growth rate: 22.4%

Incorporated in 1903, Cookeville sits almost midway between two of Tennessee's biggest cities - 101 miles west of Knoxville and 79 miles east of Nashville. Fun fact: According to the local visitors bureau, Cookeville is within a day's drive of 75% of the nation's population.

Nashville, Tennessee neighborhood pictured.

ESB / Shutterstock.com
ESB / Shutterstock.com

When it Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2028

  • Projected home value: $881,714

  • U.S. median projected home value: $848,350

  • Difference in value: $33,364

Nashville, Tennessee pictured.

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

Athens, Georgia

  • January 2022 home value: $279,410

  • One-year projected growth rate: 20.3%

Athens, with a population of 127,300, is 60 miles northeast of Atlanta. The home of the University of Georgia, the city is beaming with pride. Their beloved Bulldogs won the College Football Playoff national championship following the 2021 season - their first since 1980.

Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com
Sean Pavone / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2029

  • Projected home value: $1,018,829

  • U.S. median projected home value: $995,115

  • Difference in value: $23,714

Manuela Durson / Shutterstock.com
Manuela Durson / Shutterstock.com

Klamath Falls, Oregon

  • January 2022 home value: $280,201

  • One-year projected growth rate: 19.9%

Klamath Falls is in the south-central part of Oregon, just north of the California border. The city has a population of nearly 22,000, according to the 2020 U.S. Census. The Klamath Falls website reports the city has the highest concentration of bald eagles in the Pacific Northwest.

Grants Pass, Oregon pictured.

Oregon: 66.67 Hours a Month to Afford
Oregon: 66.67 Hours a Month to Afford

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2029

  • Projected home value: $998,169

  • U.S. median projected home value: $995,115

  • Difference in value: $3,054

Sean Pavone/iStockPhoto
Sean Pavone/iStockPhoto

Savannah, Georgia

  • January 2022 home value: $246,657

  • One-year projected growth rate: 22%

Savannah's history dates to 1733, and it became the first city in the 13th colony - Georgia - which was named for King George II of England. Today, visitors are drawn by its period architecture, art and boutiques

SeanPavonePhoto / iStock.com
SeanPavonePhoto / iStock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2030

  • Projected home value: $1,210,520

  • U.S. median projected home value: $1,167,270

  • Difference in value: $43,250

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

Huntsville, Alabama

  • January 2022 home value: $266,033

  • One-year projected growth rate: 20.6%

The city is named after John Hunt, who settled there in 1805. It grew rapidly from 2010 to 2020 - from 180,000 to 215,000 people - and is a bustling area for the technology, space and defense industries. NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and the U.S. Army Aviation and Missile Command are located in Huntsville.

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2030

  • Projected home value: $1,190,458

  • U.S. median projected home value: $1,167,270

  • Difference in value: $23,188

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Clarksville, Tennessee

  • January 2022 home value: $270,758

  • One-year projected growth rate: 20%

Clarksville is about an hour's drive north of Nashville and is located just south of the Kentucky border. About 167,000 people live there, and the average age of residents is 29, the city reports.

Google Maps
Google Maps

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2031

  • Projected home value: $1,397,052

  • U.S. median projected home value: $1,369,207

  • Difference in value: $27,845

ivanastar / Getty Images/iStockphoto
ivanastar / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Albuquerque, New Mexico

  • January 2022 home value: $289,262

  • One-year projected growth rate: 19%

About 565,000 people live in Albuquerque, and what does it mean if one of them asks you "red or green"? You're being asked whether you want red or green chiles in your New Mexican fare. Reply "Christmas" if you want both.

photoBeard / Getty Images/iStockphoto
photoBeard / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2031

  • Projected home value: $1,384,248

  • U.S. median projected home value: $1,369,207

  • Difference in value: $15,041

More From GOBankingRates

Joel Anderson contributed to the reporting for this article.

Methodology: GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow's September 2022-23 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of 537 U.S. cities that currently have home prices below the national median, with those surpassing the national median in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed "not affordable." For each "not affordable" city over the next decade, GOBankingRates found the following factors: (1) year the city will become "not affordable"; (2) projected home value for that year; (3) U.S. average projected home value for that year; and (4) the difference in value between factors (2) and (3). NOTE: GOBankingRates does not expect growth in home value to stay stagnant at one current rate for the next decade, but using these constant figures gives us an idea where certain markets are heading without unforeseen market disruptors in the future. All data used to conduct this study was compiled and verified on Feb. 23, 2022.

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities