U.S. markets closed
  • S&P Futures

    4,365.75
    +17.50 (+0.40%)
     
  • Dow Futures

    34,025.00
    +186.00 (+0.55%)
     
  • Nasdaq Futures

    15,063.00
    +53.50 (+0.36%)
     
  • Russell 2000 Futures

    2,188.70
    +11.90 (+0.55%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    70.98
    +0.69 (+0.98%)
     
  • Gold

    1,762.90
    -0.90 (-0.05%)
     
  • Silver

    22.25
    +0.05 (+0.23%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1734
    +0.0007 (+0.06%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    1.3090
    -0.0610 (-4.45%)
     
  • Vix

    25.71
    +4.90 (+23.55%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3668
    +0.0009 (+0.07%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    109.5720
    +0.1520 (+0.14%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    42,965.18
    -2,578.95 (-5.66%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    1,072.11
    -62.28 (-5.49%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    6,903.91
    -59.73 (-0.86%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    29,898.57
    -601.48 (-1.97%)
     

In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities

·9 min read
Susanne Pommer / Shutterstock.com
Susanne Pommer / Shutterstock.com

Rising home values can quickly transition a reasonable housing market into the type of real estate monster that has consumed places like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York. While the idea of affordable housing in an urban center isn't implausible for plenty of Americans living in the Midwest and South, that's also rapidly changing in some areas.

Find Out: 50 Cities Where It’s Cheaper To Buy a Home Than Rent
Ready To Invest? The Cost To Own a 3-Bedroom Home in Every State

GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which major U.S. cities are on track to lose their label of affordability. After taking 300 of the biggest cities in the U.S., the study used Zillow's one-year forecast to project the growth in home values in each city over the next decade. Then, it identified the places where that change would take the average home value from under the national median -- which currently sits at $259,906 and is expected to rise 7.0% in the next year -- to over the median at some point in the next 10 years.

See: The Worst Places To Buy a Home During the Pandemic -- and Where To Invest Instead

Granted, this approach comes with some caveats. Projecting into the future based on a single year's growth rate could ultimately paint an unfair picture in markets where the current rate is an anomaly. Additionally, Zillow's estimated home values don't necessarily reflect the list prices or sale prices in each market.

Still, identifying the areas that are outpacing the national average for growth can help shed light on the cities where you should buy a home sooner rather than later. If you end up living in one of these cities 10 years down the line, you might want to check out other, more affordable real estate markets instead.

Last updated: Aug. 31, 2021

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Ogden, Utah

  • 2020 home value: $258,544

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%

Ogden was the first settlement in Utah, located 35 miles north of Salt Lake City. It attracts numerous tourists to ski and enjoy the snow.

Buying a House? What Homes Will Be Worth in Your State by the End of 2021

Paul W Thompson / Shutterstock.com
Paul W Thompson / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2021

  • Projected home value: $279,486

  • U.S. median projected home value: $278,099

  • Difference in value: $1,387

Afford More Home: 10 Most Lucrative Side Business Ideas

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Providence, Rhode Island

  • 2020 home value: $259,027

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.3%

Historic Providence was founded in 1636 by preacher Roger Williams and boasts a population of 179,883 people.

Discover: The Most Expensive Suburbs in Every State

SeanPavonePhoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto
SeanPavonePhoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2021

  • Projected home value: $280,526

  • U.S. median projected home value: $278,099

  • Difference in value: $2,427

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images

San Tan Valley, Arizona

  • 2020 home value: $259,581

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%

San Tan Valley is home to 80,000 people in the foothills of the San Tan Mountains with a thriving park and recreation area. San Tan Valley features age-restricted communities and family neighborhoods. It's near the larger city of Chandler.

Chandler, Arizona shown here

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2021

  • Projected home value: $282,165

  • U.S. median projected home value: $278,099

  • Difference in value: $4,066

Chandler, Arizona shown here

Cbl62 / Wikimedia Commons CC-BY-SA 3
Cbl62 / Wikimedia Commons CC-BY-SA 3

El Centro, California

  • 2020 home value: $255,836

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.2%

El Centro covers 11.019 square miles and is the largest city in Imperial County. It has a population of 44,000 and growing.

Check Out: 30 Cities Where You Can Buy a House for Under $100K

Thomas Anderson / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Thomas Anderson / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2022

  • Projected home value: $299,513

  • U.S. median projected home value: $297,566

  • Difference in value: $1,947

Ric Schafer / Shutterstock.com
Ric Schafer / Shutterstock.com

Idaho Falls, Idaho

  • 2020 home value: $257,435

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8%

Idaho Falls, Idaho is located in Bonneville County. It is the largest city in the Eastern Idaho region and is the third-largest metropolitan area in the state.

KingWu / Getty Images
KingWu / Getty Images

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2022

  • Projected home value: $300,272

  • U.S. median projected home value: $297,566

  • Difference in value: $2,706

nwinter / Getty Images/iStockphoto
nwinter / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Apache Junction, Arizona

  • 2020 home value: $254,454

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%

Apache Junction, incorporated in 1978, is located on the eastern rim of the Phoenix Metropolitan area, near the foot of the scenic Superstition Mountains. Apache Junction crosses from Pinal County into Maricopa County to the west and is the start of the scenic Apache Trail.

Tim Roberts Photography / Shutterstock.com
Tim Roberts Photography / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2022

  • Projected home value: $300,655

  • U.S. median projected home value: $297,566

  • Difference in value: $3,089

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Bridgeport, Connecticut

  • 2020 home value: $248,796

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.5%

Bridgeport was incorporated in 1821 and played a key role in the Revolutionary War. Today this historic seaport city on the Long Island Sound has a population of 144,399.

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2024

  • Projected home value: $344,796

  • U.S. median projected home value: $340,684

  • Difference in value: $4,112

scott conner / Shutterstock.com
scott conner / Shutterstock.com

Pawtucket, Rhode Island

  • 2020 home value: $251,675

  • One-year projected growth rate: 7.7%

Pawtucket, a historic center of the early machine and textile boom, was founded in 1671. It is home to 71,148, people and located at the falls of the Blackstone River and the upper tidewaters of Narragansett Bay.

Don't Miss: The Best Place To Buy a Home in Every State

Christopher Boswell / Shutterstock.com
Christopher Boswell / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025

  • Projected home value: $364,686

  • U.S. median projected home value: $364,532

  • Difference in value: $154

Stephen Wood / Shutterstock.com
Stephen Wood / Shutterstock.com

Melbourne, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $253,501

  • One-year projected growth rate: 7.6%

Melbourne is a metropolitan area with lots of access to wildlife, nature and beaches. It's just a 90-minute drive from Orlando's big attractions. It has a population of 576,808.

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025

  • Projected home value: $365,629

  • U.S. median projected home value: $364,532

  • Difference in value: $1,097

ESB Professional / Shutterstock.com
ESB Professional / Shutterstock.com

Town 'n' Country, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $253,590

  • One-year projected growth rate: 7.6%

Town 'n' Country is a suburb of Tampa with a population of 85,620 in Hillsborough County.

Tampa, Florida shown here

ferrantraite / iStock.com
ferrantraite / iStock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025

  • Projected home value: $365,758

  • U.S. median projected home value: $364,532

  • Difference in value: $1,226

Tampa, Florida shown here

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

Maricopa, Arizona

  • 2020 home value: $244,659

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.5%

Maricopa is one of the oldest and most historic communities in the state of Arizona, a former stop for stagecoaches crossing the west. The county holds a population of well over 4.5 million residents and includes the cities of Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and Glendale.

Davel5957 / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Davel5957 / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025

  • Projected home value: $367,833

  • U.S. median projected home value: $364,532

  • Difference in value: $3,351

DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DenisTangneyJr / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Irvington, New Jersey

  • 2020 home value: $236,993

  • One-year projected growth rate: 9.3%

A historic part of the American Revolution, the township of Irvington is thought to have been founded in 1692. Today it holds a population of 54,312 people. It's a suburb of Newark.

Newark, New Jersey shown here

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2025

  • Projected home value: $369,689

  • U.S. median projected home value: $364,532

  • Difference in value: $5,157

Newark, New Jersey shown here

Adam Goldberg Photography / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Adam Goldberg Photography / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Lilburn, Georgia

  • 2020 home value: $255,833

  • One-year projected growth rate: 7.3%

Lilburn is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County, Georgia. Its population is over 12,700.

Find Out: How Much Home You Can Buy With the Average Income in Every State

Atlanta, Georgia shown here

rodclementphotography / Getty Images/iStockphoto
rodclementphotography / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $390,441

  • U.S. median projected home value: $390,049

  • Difference in value: $706

digidreamgrafix / iStock.com
digidreamgrafix / iStock.com

Rock Hill, South Carolina

  • 2020 home value: $216,996

  • One-year projected growth rate: 10.3%

Rock Hill, South Carolina is located in the north-central area of South Carolina, approximately 20 miles south of Charlotte, North Carolina. The city has a growing population of 67,000 residents.

digidreamgrafix / Shutterstock.com
digidreamgrafix / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $390,755

  • U.S. median projected home value: $390,049

  • Difference in value: $706

Scott Richie / Flickr.com
Scott Richie / Flickr.com

Concord, North Carolina

  • 2020 home value: $253,441

  • One-year projected growth rate: 7.5%

Just under 80,000 people reside in Concord, which is located immediately outside of Charlotte, North Carolina. With a median income of over $60,000, Concord residents earn slightly more than the national average.

Scott Alan Ritchie / Shutterstock.com
Scott Alan Ritchie / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $391,136

  • U.S. median projected home value: $390,049

  • Difference in value: $1,087

Freer / Shutterstock.com
Freer / Shutterstock.com

Clearwater, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $245,200

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%

Clearwater sits north of St. Petersburg and west of Tampa on Florida's Gulf Coast. The city's roughly 45,000 residents can enjoy the sun and surf as well as their proximity to two larger cities and all of the associated amenities.

Empato / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Empato / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When it Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $391,268

  • U.S. median projected home value: $390,049

  • Difference in value: $1,219

dosecreative / Getty Images/iStockphoto
dosecreative / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Olive Branch, Mississippi

  • 2020 home value: $247,059

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8%

Olive Branch is a city in DeSoto County, Mississippi, just across the Tennessee state line and near Memphis. This slowly growing community has a population of over 37,000.

Memphis, Tennessee shown here

sframephoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto
sframephoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2026

  • Projected home value: $392,052

  • U.S. median projected home value: $390,049

  • Difference in value: $2,003

Memphis, Tennessee shown here

Michael Warren / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Michael Warren / Getty Images/iStockphoto

St. Petersburg, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $234,372

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.6%

Sitting just south of Clearwater, St. Petersburg offers warm weather and a great location on Florida's Gulf Coast and the Tampa Bay. It has a population of over 50,000 residents.

SeanPavonePhoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto
SeanPavonePhoto / Getty Images/iStockphoto

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2027

  • Projected home value: $417,556

  • U.S. median projected home value: $417,352

  • Difference in value: $204

DIRDPKC / Getty Images/iStockphoto
DIRDPKC / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Largo, Florida

  • 2020 home value: $235,227

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%

Largo is the third-largest city in Pinellas County, Florida as well as the fourth-largest in the Tampa Bay area. It sits in between Clearwater and St. Petersburg and has a population of almost 85,000 people.

Clearwater, Florida shown here

Shutterstock.com
Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2027

  • Projected home value: $421,788

  • U.S. median projected home value: $417,352

  • Difference in value: $4436

Clearwater, Florida shown here

Capricorn90 / Wikimedia Commons CC-BY-SA 3
Capricorn90 / Wikimedia Commons CC-BY-SA 3

Tulare, California

  • 2020 home value: $241,615

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%

The town of Tulare was founded in 1872 by the Southern Pacific Railroad to serve as its San Joaquin Valley headquarters. The city is situated in the Central San Joaquin Valley along Highway 99, 45 miles south of Fresno, 60 miles north of Bakersfield and near the city of Visalia.

Visalia, California shown here

Tupungato / Shutterstock.com
Tupungato / Shutterstock.com

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2028

  • Projected home value: $450,536

  • U.S. median projected home value: $446,567

  • Difference in value: $3,969

Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto
Sean Pavone / Getty Images/iStockphoto

Kentwood, Michigan

  • 2020 home value: $227,012

  • One-year projected growth rate: 8.8%

Kentwood is a suburb of Grand Rapids with a population of 51,525. Kentwood is in Kent County.

Grand Rapids, Michigan shown here

Google Maps
Google Maps

When It Will Become Too Expensive

  • Year: 2029

  • Projected home value: $484,963

  • U.S. median projected home value: $477,827

  • Difference in value: $7,136

Grand Rapids, Michigan shown here

More From GOBankingRates

Joel Anderson contributed to the reporting for this article.

GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow’s September 2020-21 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of 537 U.S. cities that currently have home prices below the national median, with those surpassing the national median in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed “not affordable.” For each "not affordable" city over the next decade, GOBankingRates found the following factors: (1) year the city will become "not affordable"; (2) projected home value for that year; (3) US average projected home value for that year; and (4) the difference in value between factors (2) and (3). NOTE: GOBankingRates does not expect growth in home value to stay stagnant at one current rate for the next decade, but using these constant figures gives us an idea of where certain markets are heading without unforeseen market disruptors in the future. All data used to conduct this study was compiled and verified on Oct. 29, 2020.

This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities