In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities
Rising home values can quickly transition a reasonable housing market into the type of real estate monster that has consumed places like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York. While the idea of affordable housing in an urban center isn't implausible for plenty of Americans living in the Midwest and South, that's also rapidly changing in some areas.
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GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which major U.S. cities are on track to lose their label of affordability. After taking 300 of the biggest cities in the U.S., the study used Zillow's one-year forecast to project the growth in home values in each city over the next decade. Then, it identified the places where that change would take the average home value from under the national median -- which currently sits at $259,906 and is expected to rise 7.0% in the next year -- to over the median at some point in the next 10 years.
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Granted, this approach comes with some caveats. Projecting into the future based on a single year's growth rate could ultimately paint an unfair picture in markets where the current rate is an anomaly. Additionally, Zillow's estimated home values don't necessarily reflect the list prices or sale prices in each market.
Still, identifying the areas that are outpacing the national average for growth can help shed light on the cities where you should buy a home sooner rather than later. If you end up living in one of these cities 10 years down the line, you might want to check out other, more affordable real estate markets instead.
Last updated: Aug. 31, 2021
Ogden, Utah
2020 home value: $258,544
One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%
Ogden was the first settlement in Utah, located 35 miles north of Salt Lake City. It attracts numerous tourists to ski and enjoy the snow.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2021
Projected home value: $279,486
U.S. median projected home value: $278,099
Difference in value: $1,387
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Providence, Rhode Island
2020 home value: $259,027
One-year projected growth rate: 8.3%
Historic Providence was founded in 1636 by preacher Roger Williams and boasts a population of 179,883 people.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2021
Projected home value: $280,526
U.S. median projected home value: $278,099
Difference in value: $2,427
San Tan Valley, Arizona
2020 home value: $259,581
One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%
San Tan Valley is home to 80,000 people in the foothills of the San Tan Mountains with a thriving park and recreation area. San Tan Valley features age-restricted communities and family neighborhoods. It's near the larger city of Chandler.
Chandler, Arizona shown here
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2021
Projected home value: $282,165
U.S. median projected home value: $278,099
Difference in value: $4,066
Chandler, Arizona shown here
El Centro, California
2020 home value: $255,836
One-year projected growth rate: 8.2%
El Centro covers 11.019 square miles and is the largest city in Imperial County. It has a population of 44,000 and growing.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2022
Projected home value: $299,513
U.S. median projected home value: $297,566
Difference in value: $1,947
Idaho Falls, Idaho
2020 home value: $257,435
One-year projected growth rate: 8%
Idaho Falls, Idaho is located in Bonneville County. It is the largest city in the Eastern Idaho region and is the third-largest metropolitan area in the state.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2022
Projected home value: $300,272
U.S. median projected home value: $297,566
Difference in value: $2,706
Apache Junction, Arizona
2020 home value: $254,454
One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%
Apache Junction, incorporated in 1978, is located on the eastern rim of the Phoenix Metropolitan area, near the foot of the scenic Superstition Mountains. Apache Junction crosses from Pinal County into Maricopa County to the west and is the start of the scenic Apache Trail.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2022
Projected home value: $300,655
U.S. median projected home value: $297,566
Difference in value: $3,089
Bridgeport, Connecticut
2020 home value: $248,796
One-year projected growth rate: 8.5%
Bridgeport was incorporated in 1821 and played a key role in the Revolutionary War. Today this historic seaport city on the Long Island Sound has a population of 144,399.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2024
Projected home value: $344,796
U.S. median projected home value: $340,684
Difference in value: $4,112
Pawtucket, Rhode Island
2020 home value: $251,675
One-year projected growth rate: 7.7%
Pawtucket, a historic center of the early machine and textile boom, was founded in 1671. It is home to 71,148, people and located at the falls of the Blackstone River and the upper tidewaters of Narragansett Bay.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $364,686
U.S. median projected home value: $364,532
Difference in value: $154
Melbourne, Florida
2020 home value: $253,501
One-year projected growth rate: 7.6%
Melbourne is a metropolitan area with lots of access to wildlife, nature and beaches. It's just a 90-minute drive from Orlando's big attractions. It has a population of 576,808.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $365,629
U.S. median projected home value: $364,532
Difference in value: $1,097
Town 'n' Country, Florida
2020 home value: $253,590
One-year projected growth rate: 7.6%
Tampa, Florida shown here
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $365,758
U.S. median projected home value: $364,532
Difference in value: $1,226
Tampa, Florida shown here
Maricopa, Arizona
2020 home value: $244,659
One-year projected growth rate: 8.5%
Maricopa is one of the oldest and most historic communities in the state of Arizona, a former stop for stagecoaches crossing the west. The county holds a population of well over 4.5 million residents and includes the cities of Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe and Glendale.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $367,833
U.S. median projected home value: $364,532
Difference in value: $3,351
Irvington, New Jersey
2020 home value: $236,993
One-year projected growth rate: 9.3%
A historic part of the American Revolution, the township of Irvington is thought to have been founded in 1692. Today it holds a population of 54,312 people. It's a suburb of Newark.
Newark, New Jersey shown here
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2025
Projected home value: $369,689
U.S. median projected home value: $364,532
Difference in value: $5,157
Newark, New Jersey shown here
Lilburn, Georgia
2020 home value: $255,833
One-year projected growth rate: 7.3%
Lilburn is a suburb of Atlanta in Gwinnett County, Georgia. Its population is over 12,700.
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Atlanta, Georgia shown here
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $390,441
U.S. median projected home value: $390,049
Difference in value: $706
Rock Hill, South Carolina
2020 home value: $216,996
One-year projected growth rate: 10.3%
Rock Hill, South Carolina is located in the north-central area of South Carolina, approximately 20 miles south of Charlotte, North Carolina. The city has a growing population of 67,000 residents.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $390,755
U.S. median projected home value: $390,049
Difference in value: $706
Concord, North Carolina
2020 home value: $253,441
One-year projected growth rate: 7.5%
Just under 80,000 people reside in Concord, which is located immediately outside of Charlotte, North Carolina. With a median income of over $60,000, Concord residents earn slightly more than the national average.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $391,136
U.S. median projected home value: $390,049
Difference in value: $1,087
Clearwater, Florida
2020 home value: $245,200
One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%
Clearwater sits north of St. Petersburg and west of Tampa on Florida's Gulf Coast. The city's roughly 45,000 residents can enjoy the sun and surf as well as their proximity to two larger cities and all of the associated amenities.
When it Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $391,268
U.S. median projected home value: $390,049
Difference in value: $1,219
Olive Branch, Mississippi
2020 home value: $247,059
One-year projected growth rate: 8%
Olive Branch is a city in DeSoto County, Mississippi, just across the Tennessee state line and near Memphis. This slowly growing community has a population of over 37,000.
Memphis, Tennessee shown here
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2026
Projected home value: $392,052
U.S. median projected home value: $390,049
Difference in value: $2,003
Memphis, Tennessee shown here
St. Petersburg, Florida
2020 home value: $234,372
One-year projected growth rate: 8.6%
Sitting just south of Clearwater, St. Petersburg offers warm weather and a great location on Florida's Gulf Coast and the Tampa Bay. It has a population of over 50,000 residents.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2027
Projected home value: $417,556
U.S. median projected home value: $417,352
Difference in value: $204
Largo, Florida
2020 home value: $235,227
One-year projected growth rate: 8.7%
Largo is the third-largest city in Pinellas County, Florida as well as the fourth-largest in the Tampa Bay area. It sits in between Clearwater and St. Petersburg and has a population of almost 85,000 people.
Clearwater, Florida shown here
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2027
Projected home value: $421,788
U.S. median projected home value: $417,352
Difference in value: $4436
Clearwater, Florida shown here
Tulare, California
2020 home value: $241,615
One-year projected growth rate: 8.1%
The town of Tulare was founded in 1872 by the Southern Pacific Railroad to serve as its San Joaquin Valley headquarters. The city is situated in the Central San Joaquin Valley along Highway 99, 45 miles south of Fresno, 60 miles north of Bakersfield and near the city of Visalia.
Visalia, California shown here
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2028
Projected home value: $450,536
U.S. median projected home value: $446,567
Difference in value: $3,969
Kentwood, Michigan
2020 home value: $227,012
One-year projected growth rate: 8.8%
Grand Rapids, Michigan shown here
When It Will Become Too Expensive
Year: 2029
Projected home value: $484,963
U.S. median projected home value: $477,827
Difference in value: $7,136
Grand Rapids, Michigan shown here
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Joel Anderson contributed to the reporting for this article.
GOBankingRates took the overall U.S. median home value and projected its growth over 10 years using Zillow’s September 2020-21 one-year forecast. This projection was then compared to the projections of 537 U.S. cities that currently have home prices below the national median, with those surpassing the national median in the next 10 years (plus its projected growth rate over the same period) being deemed “not affordable.” For each "not affordable" city over the next decade, GOBankingRates found the following factors: (1) year the city will become "not affordable"; (2) projected home value for that year; (3) US average projected home value for that year; and (4) the difference in value between factors (2) and (3). NOTE: GOBankingRates does not expect growth in home value to stay stagnant at one current rate for the next decade, but using these constant figures gives us an idea of where certain markets are heading without unforeseen market disruptors in the future. All data used to conduct this study was compiled and verified on Oct. 29, 2020.
This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: In Less Than a Decade, You Won’t Be Able To Afford a Home in These Cities
