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Lessons from 7 Years of Stock Investing

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·5 min read
In this article:
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  • (0:45) - 7 Years Of Investing: Learning From The Past

  • (4:00) - Navigating Market Corrections and Crashes

  • (11:35) - The Cyclical Cycle of Semiconductors

  • (16:10) - The Impact of The Fed: Inflation Fears

  • (22:35) - 2022 Portfolio Strategy: How To Plan Your Investments

  • (27:00) - Why Is It Hard To Buy High Flying Stocks

  • (31:30) - Episode Roundup: XOM, JPM, PYPL, SQ, NVDA, MU, TTD, AAPL, FB

  • Podcast@Zacks.com

 

Welcome to Episode #300 of the Zacks Market Edge Podcast.

Every week, host and Zacks stock strategist, Tracey Ryniec, will be joined by guests to discuss the hottest investing topics in stocks, bonds and ETFs and how it impacts your life.

This week, Tracey is joined by Zacks Senior Stock Strategist, Kevin Cook, to celebrate the 300th episode of Zacks Market Edge.

It’s Been a Crazy Ride Over the Last 7 Years

Tracey took the airwaves in 2015 to talk about stocks and the economy each week on a podcast, and ended up covering “new” technologies like the blockchain and bitcoin, along with the old standbys of gold and oil.

There was a manufacturing recession in 2015 and a total global economy recession during the pandemic in 2020.

Brexit and the semiconductor rally dominated, along with the 2017 corporate tax cuts and 2018 Federal Reserve rate increases.

How’d They Do?

This week Tracey and Kevin discuss everything investors have been through over the past 7 years, including a 23% sell-off in the NASDAQ in 2018. Who remembers that?

They also discuss some of their mistakes and lessons learned navigating the stock market, as well as where stocks might go from here in 2022.

Remember: those who have an investing plan will have an edge.

Mistakes, and Wins, Over the Last 7 Years

1.       ExxonMobil XOM

After crude plunged in 2014-2015, it seemed like the stocks, like ExxonMobil, were cheap.

ExxonMobil’s earnings rebounded by 2016. Tracey bought in, thinking the worst of the energy bear market was over.

But it was not to be. ExxonMobil shares have lagged the S&P 500 horribly for years. Over the last 5 years, ExxonMobil is down 15% while the S&P 500 is up 90%.

However, the energy stocks were the best performers in 2021, and ExxonMobil is hitting a new 2-year high.

Is this rally a real bull breakout or another bear fake out?

2.       JPMorgan Chase JPM

The banks were at the epicenter of the financial crisis. JPMorgan Chase shares rebounded out of the dark times, but by 2016, the shares were hitting new lows again.

JPMorgan Chase’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, stepped in with a $25 million stock purchase.

Tracey thought JPMorgan Chase, and the other banks, were cheap, so she dove in on many of them.

But it wasn’t the breakout in the industry she thought it would be.

While JPMorgan Chase has gotten a boost during the pandemic, shares over the last 5 years have gained 67% versus 90% for the S&P 500.

Is that underperformance about to change as the Fed raises rates?

3.       NVIDIA NVDA

In 2017, the semiconductor stocks started rallying. Kevin called it a “mega trend” which he expected to last several years.

The Market Edge podcast did many shows about the semiconductors, especially industry leader NVIDIA, which Kevin encouraged investors to buy. He often had NVIDIA in his Zacks portfolios over the years.

Tracey regrets never diving in on NVIDIA even though it was featured on countless podcasts over the last 7 years.

Will Tracey be a buyer on NVIDIA’s 2022 weakness?

4.       PayPal PYPL

Both Tracey and Kevin “missed” PayPal even though it was featured on many podcasts after it was spun off from eBay in 2015, the year the podcast debuted.

PayPal shares have soared 367% in the last 7 years, out performing the Nasdaq which was up 171% during the same period.

But PayPal shares sunk at the end of 2021, and continued to fall in 2022. They are now down 37% over the last year.

Should investors face their fears and dive in to buy PayPal on this sell-off?

5.       Block, Inc. SQ

Block, formerly known as Square, has also been a prominent company featured many times on the podcast over the last 7 years.

Block went public in 2015, the same year the podcast launched. And with Jack Dorsey, then CEO of Twitter, also at the helm of Block, it was a unique company.

Kevin was a big believer in Square over the years, and has owned it in his Zacks portfolio over the years, but Tracey stayed on the sidelines due to valuation issues.

Block has gained 1,156% since it went public, compared to the Nasdaq’s return of just 193%.

Like PayPal, however, shares sunk at the end of 2021 and continued to slide into 2022.

Block is down 31% over the last month but despite the slide, it still trades with a forward P/E of 71.

Is Block still too expensive for Tracey to dive in, or can she cure her old regrets by snapping up some on this sell-off?

What Else Should You Know About Stock Investing Over the Last 7 Years?  

Tune into this week’s podcast to find out.


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JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Block Inc. (SQ) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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