It's been a sad week for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIND), who've watched their investment drop 14% to US$13.03 in the week since the company reported its annual result. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$343m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 4.2% to hit US$0.28 per share. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what analysts' statutory forecasts suggest is in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Lindblad Expeditions Holdings's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$403.6m in 2020. This would be a decent 18% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to shoot up 62% to US$0.47. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of US$391.7m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.52 in 2020. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Lindblad Expeditions Holdings after the latest results; while analysts lifted revenue numbers, they also administered a small dip in per-share earnings expectations.
There's been no major changes to an analyst price target of US$19.43, suggesting that the impact of higher forecast sales and lower earnings won't result in a meaningful change to the business' valuation. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$25.00 and the most bearish at US$15.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
Further, we can compare these estimates to past performance, and see how Lindblad Expeditions Holdings forecasts compare to the wider market's forecast performance. It's clear from the latest estimates that Lindblad Expeditions Holdings's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with forecast 18% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.4% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, analysts also expect Lindblad Expeditions Holdings to grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Pleasantly, analysts also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Lindblad Expeditions Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Lindblad Expeditions Holdings going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also view our analysis of Lindblad Expeditions Holdings's balance sheet, and whether we think Lindblad Expeditions Holdings is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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