Red Alert beats Black Hawk down … so show’em the money already and get this over with. As in any and all political systems – the payoffs have to be in place first.
The global PMI data checked in above expectations. Global growth shows signs of life following a couple of months where the data led to slowing concerns which led to “taper the taper” chants. However, for now, the geopolitical headlines continue to hold traders and the markets in check. The Ukrainian/Russian news from late Friday and the updates through the weekend led to above average volume as well as a sharply lower Globex session. To us, the combination of above average volume and an extended move sets up the regular trading hours, pit session, for some back and fill before the next leg is decided. In today’s case, the late and weak shorts got squeezed early before the market forces, buying/selling pressure and/or news began to influence the early direction of the indices.
We believe the midmorning move to the morning low was influenced by a technical breakdown that was identified by topnotchtrading (10:35) talk about indecisive market movement, however, ES looking to dip its toe to the downside targeting 1832.75 & 1829.25. Sure there were also “breaking headlines” that influenced the move, but overall those headlines are to be expected under the circumstances as the geopolitical posturing is measured by not only inches – but by working on saving face and more importantly – pilfering some of that money that will be flowing in. We hope it does not deteriorate to anything more than that or else the U.S. and its global partners will have yet another line in the sand. So far, Putin seems to be playing chess while we are playing at Chuck E Cheese. However, this definitely leaves a mark especially after investing/pilfering some $51 billion on the Olympics: mts2 (10:26) thats gotta hurt >> Bespoke @bespokeinvest With its 12% decline today, Russia’s stock market is now down 47.5% from its post-financial crisis peak made on 4/11/11.
Snippets: This was e-mailed to the chat room on Sunday evening along with charts detailing this content: A weekly chart was used of the DOW–reason = SP did not become the main squeeze until 1983 and did not switch horses in midstream for events after 1983 === obviously THESE ARE WEEKLY CHARTS, so a couple such as KUWAIT and 9/11 took time frame charts to finesse– but this study is WHAT DID happen on what I consider the ‘events’ since 1962 ‘gee, bill where are the Falkland Islands, etc’ — I have made no bones about it in many public writings (mainly in the early 2000-2001 period at AVID): THERE ARE ONLY 4 COUNTRIES THAT REALLY MATTER – William Blount.
Markit US Manufacturing Pmi Index At Highest Since May 2010, Output At Highest Since March 2011, New Orders At Highest Since April 2010. Well, there is something
Exchange data show that across the 85 global commodity futures markets we track, the net increase in open interest due to flows was $11.8 bn for the week ending February 28, 2014. Weekly net inflows into energy ($12.8 bn) and metals ($7.9 bn) were partially offset by net outflows from agriculture ($8.8 bn). In the exchanges we track, weekly net inflows into base metals totaled $8.4?bn, marking the largest weekly net inflow in more than nine years. The flows into base metals were led by weekly net inflows into SHFE copper ($4.6?bn) and LME aluminum ($1.3 bn). In energy, net inflows into crude oil were $10.3 bn last week, marking the largest weekly net inflow into crude since the week ending August 9, 2013. In agriculture, weekly net outflows from grains and oilseeds ($7.1 bn) were led by net outflows from corn ($2.1?bn) and wheat ($1.9 bn) – posted by Chance.
MarketDelta & MrTopStep: Technology Tips for Floor Traders Revealed!
Webinar 3-8-14 http://mrtopstep.com/?p=37955
From Russia with … Today’s regular trading hours, pit session, opened with a well above average 500k ES traded and a sharply lower, 16 handle lower opening range of 1841.50 – 1842.20. Following a short squeeze the early morning upside was contained to choppy trade before the intraday low of 1832.30 printed following the European close. The midday was a slow grind in moderate volume that led back to diddling around the opening range. Conviction was low as the bears had their chance to squash the indices only to have the momentum wrestled away during the afternoon session.
Kathy lunch video: http://bit.ly/1pWuKPn
The MrTopStep imbalance Meter, MiM, grew to a modest imbalance of $340M and on to $530M to the buy side going into the close. The futures traded 1843.40 area on the cash close before settling at 1843.10, down 14.5 handles on the day. Volume was huge at 2.36M E-minis traded.
Economic calendar: http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/ Earnings pre-market: [AZO], Glencore Xstrata, [JRN], [RSH], [SSP] Tuesday post close: [BOBE], [CKEC], [GTY], [VEEV]
And if Russia is not enough: Obama to Israel — Time Is Running Out http://bv.ms/1cxEs1C
How Stocks React to Geopolitical Uncertainty http://on.wsj.com/Novkql