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Long Bond Gets Optimistic Ahead of FOMC Meeting

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

Today's Highlight: The long bond ended the week optimistically back at resistance, leaving unfinished business below with another FOMC meeting just ahead.

Dollar Basket
Sep Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
The decline had resumed Thursday with a new low close, but not yet much of a new intraday low, which Friday fulfilled. Currencies tend to duplicate Friday afternoon trending, so the drop should extend initially so long as 82.20 isn't recovered.

[More from Minyanville.com: Crude Oil May Have Fallen Too Far to Get Back Up ]

Sep Contract EC; (FXE)
The rally had resumed Thursday with a new high close, but not yet any new intraday high, which Friday fulfilled. Currencies tend to duplicate Friday afternoon trending, so the rally should extend initially so long as 1.3205 isn't broken.

[More from Minyanville.com: Will Crude Oil's Rally Resume? ]

Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Resuming the rally proved difficult Friday, as the 1319.00-1320.00 support was tested, and probed briefly down to the 1312.50 sell signal. Recovering to close above 1319.00-1320.00 kept alive potential to extend the rally.

[More from Minyanville.com: Has Gold Started to Respond to US Dollar Price Moves? ]

Sep Contract SI; (SLV)
Gapping down under 20.00 on Friday and extending down has left unfinished business above, making a second consecutive lower close Monday unlikely, but very dangerous.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Friday's gap up extended higher intraday to test 135-00 resistance. Without closing above it, attraction back down to the 132-24 gap remains intact.

Crude Oil
Sep Contract CL; (USO)
Thursday's key reversal setup was a little lacking, and then very much so as Friday gapped back down to erase Thursday's gains and retest 104.00. Closing back above 106.00 would reinstate the rally, but there is otherwise no active pattern.

Natural Gas
Aug Contract CL; (UNG), (UNL)
Rejecting the 3.73 buy signal Thursday was punished by dropping sharply into the weekend to retest 3.55-3.60 support, which there is no bullish reason to be retesting.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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