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Long Bond Plunges in Reaction to Today's NFP

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: The long bond met a long-awaited target Wednesday, less than two days before plunging in reaction to Friday's Employment Situation Report. Either the bond is done and much lower lows lie ahead, or the week should begin with a sizable corrective bounce.
Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
It Improved momentarily to attack its 82.80 target up to 82.60 but ended the day testing its 82.15 pullback limit to maintain the recovery's potential.

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Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
It had rallied overnight to 1.3150 but plunged on NFP data to retest Thursday's 1.3040 lows. Bouncing back up to 1.3150 still ended the day testing the 1.3105 bounce limit, instead of signaling a rally underway.

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Apr Contract GC; (GLD)
An overnight probe up to 1487.00 failed before Friday's open. Another surge held 1480.00 before reversing back down to 1455.40. It ended the day down slightly around 1465.00. There continues to be potential for breaking higher to 1532.50, until a pullback actually closes under 1529.50

May Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's ranging gained no traction either way, keeping the door open to a deeper pullback targeting 22.95.

30-year Treasury
Mar Contract US; (TLT)
Thursday's reaction down from Wednesday's test of the long-awaited 149-14 target had dipped prematurely Thursday morning back under the 148-28 sell signal. Friday's reaction down on the Employment Situation Report extended sharply lower to 146-27. Extending any lower anytime soon requires bounces to hold 147-12.

Crude Oil
Apr Contract CL; (USO)
The retest of prior highs also tested 94.75 resistance early Friday, and extended to also test 96.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm 98.10 is in-play. Closing back under 94.75 should instead start trending back down.

Natural Gas
Apr Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Thursday's plunge did suddenly slow its pace come Friday. And fresh lows did probe the 3.95-4.00 support, then closed positive. Closing Monday back above 4.16 would seal a bottom.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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