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The Long Bond Tested Support Today

Rod David

The following are the latest daily summaries of my ongoing intraday coverage, providing context to interpret price action. Any prices listed are for a contract's current "front month." Their direction tends to correlate with any ETFs listed for each.

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Today's Highlight: The long bond fulfilled its retest of prior lows Monday. Unlike recent dips along the way down, no sponsorship was attracted for even a bounce. Lower lows are likely before a rally would be credible, but a reversal setup should not be too much further away.
Dollar Basket
Jun Contract DX; (UUP), (UDN)
Monday's probe above 82.00 ended no better than Friday's inability even to touch it. An attraction below at 81.33 probably needs to be neutralized before the rally can extend.

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Jun Contract EC; (FXE)
Thursday's 1.2344 close recovered Monday to test Friday's 1.3263 gap up. Friday's high should next be probed back up to 1.3333. It should be obvious there almost immediately that buying pressure has disappeared, or else a much more substantial rally leg will be underway.

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Aug Contract GC; (GLD)
Monday's slightly lower fresh low attacking 1375.00 was recovered to test 1385.00 resistance, but did not recover 1390.00 or 1393.50 which would have signaled Friday's was absorbed. Back under 1379.00 should resume the decline's momentum.

Jul Contract SI; (SLV)
Friday's close was still testing the outstanding 21.80 objective, and essentially so did Monday's session, firming slightly without gaining traction. Resuming the decline would next target 20.20.

30-year Treasury
Sep Contract US; (TLT)
Friday's post-close extension down under 139-16 was extended even further Monday to 138-22, gapping down and spending the entire session in negative territory. Back above 139-30 would signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, extending the decline would next target 137-18/138-30.

Crude Oil
Jul Contract CL; (USO)
Monday's modest gap down consolidated Friday's rally back up to 96.00. The session ranged mostly only slightly in negative territory around its 95.65 pullback limit. The dip's shallowness, and lacking an afternoon fresh low that could be recovered, the pattern did not form what would have been bullish "ineffectual pessimism." Still, extending above 96.00 at Tuesday's open would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Natural Gas
Jul Contract NG; (UNG), (UNL)
Not extending Thursday's plunge any lower Friday avoided confirming that momentum was pointing down. It did not reverse momentum up, and Monday probed fresh lows before trying to close positive. An accumulation pattern will need to form before assuming the decline has ended.
Editor's note: Rod's analytical techniques are designed to efficiently identify targets and turning points for any liquid stock or market in any time frame. He applies his techniques live intraday, primarily to S&P futures, at RodDavid .com.

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