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It is a pleasure to report that the Consolidated Communications Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CNSL) is up 39% in the last quarter. But that can't change the reality that over the longer term (five years), the returns have been really quite dismal. In that time the share price has delivered a rude shock to holders, who find themselves down 73% after a long stretch. Some might say the recent bounce is to be expected after such a bad drop. We'd err towards caution given the long term under-performance.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
During five years of share price growth, Consolidated Communications Holdings moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.
In contrast to the share price, revenue has actually increased by 14% a year in the five year period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that Consolidated Communications Holdings has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
What about the Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Consolidated Communications Holdings' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. Its history of dividend payouts mean that Consolidated Communications Holdings' TSR, which was a 62% drop over the last 5 years, was not as bad as the share price return.
A Different Perspective
Consolidated Communications Holdings provided a TSR of 46% over the last twelve months. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 10% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Consolidated Communications Holdings better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Consolidated Communications Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.
Of course Consolidated Communications Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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