Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (HKG:2600) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Step by step through the calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)||CN¥4.94b||CN¥3.93b||CN¥3.37b||CN¥3.06b||CN¥2.87b||CN¥2.76b||CN¥2.70b||CN¥2.67b||CN¥2.66b||CN¥2.67b|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Analyst x3||Analyst x3||Est @ -14.15%||Est @ -9.44%||Est @ -6.14%||Est @ -3.83%||Est @ -2.22%||Est @ -1.09%||Est @ -0.3%||Est @ 0.26%|
|Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 13%||CN¥4.4k||CN¥3.1k||CN¥2.3k||CN¥1.9k||CN¥1.6k||CN¥1.3k||CN¥1.1k||CN¥1.0k||CN¥884||CN¥784|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥18b
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 1.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 13%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥2.7b× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ 13%– 1.6%) = CN¥24b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= CN¥24b÷ ( 1 + 13%)10= CN¥6.9b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥25b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of HK$1.5, the company appears about fair value at a 6.5% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Aluminum Corporation of China as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 13%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.813. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Aluminum Corporation of China, We've put together three relevant factors you should look at:
- Risks: For example, we've discovered 4 warning signs for Aluminum Corporation of China (1 is significant!) that you should be aware of before investing here.
- Future Earnings: How does 2600's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every HK stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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