A Look At The Fair Value Of Kri Kri S.A. (ATH:KRI)
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Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Kri Kri S.A. (ATH:KRI) as an investment opportunity by taking the foreast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Check out our latest analysis for Kri Kri
The calculation
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | |
Levered FCF (€, Millions) | €13.00 | €16.88 | €20.66 | €24.20 | €27.47 | €30.46 | €33.24 | €35.86 | €38.36 | €40.80 |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Est @ 40.54% | Est @ 29.85% | Est @ 22.38% | Est @ 17.14% | Est @ 13.48% | Est @ 10.92% | Est @ 9.12% | Est @ 7.86% | Est @ 6.98% | Est @ 6.37% |
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 16.92% | €11.12 | €12.35 | €12.93 | €12.95 | €12.57 | €11.92 | €11.13 | €10.26 | €9.39 | €8.54 |
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €113.16m
"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (4.9%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 16.9%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €41m × (1 + 4.9%) ÷ (16.9% – 4.9%) = €357m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = €€357m ÷ ( 1 + 16.9%)10 = €74.76m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €187.92m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of €5.68. Compared to the current share price of €5.16, the company appears about fair value at a 9.2% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Important assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Kri Kri as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 16.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.800. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Kri Kri, I've compiled three important factors you should further research:
Financial Health: Does KRI have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of KRI? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every GR stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.
