Does the share price for Select Medical Holdings Corporation (NYSE:SEM) reflect it’s really worth? Today, I will calculate the stock’s intrinsic value by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. This is done using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in September 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.
I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||$181.00||$201.61||$224.56||$250.13||$278.60|
|Source||Analyst x1||Est @ 11.39%||Est @ 11.39%||Est @ 11.39%||Est @ 11.39%|
|Present Value Discounted @ 12.59%||$160.76||$159.05||$157.35||$155.67||$154.00|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$786.8m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.9%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 12.6%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$278.6m × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (12.6% – 2.9%) = US$2.98b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$2.98b ÷ ( 1 + 12.6%)5 = US$1.65b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$2.43b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of $17.96. Compared to the current share price of $19.8, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued and not available at a discount at this time.
I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Select Medical Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 12.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.367. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For SEM, I’ve compiled three pertinent factors you should further examine:
- Financial Health: Does SEM have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does SEM’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of SEM? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.