I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Sirius XM Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:SIRI) by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today’s value. I will use the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in October 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.
Is SIRI fairly valued?
I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows.
5-year cash flow forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||$1.68k||$1.74k||$1.72k||$1.77k||$1.93k|
|Source||Analyst x10||Analyst x8||Analyst x4||Analyst x3||Est @ 8.83%|
|Present Value Discounted @ 10.42%||$1.52k||$1.43k||$1.28k||$1.19k||$1.17k|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$6.6b
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 5-year period we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.9%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 10.4%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.9b × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (10.4% – 2.9%) = US$26.6b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$26.6b ÷ ( 1 + 10.4%)5 = US$16.2b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$22.8b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) or ADR then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of $5.11. Compared to the current share price of $5.95, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued and not available at a discount at this time.
I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Sirius XM Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 10.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.06. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, DCF calculation shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For SIRI, there are three pertinent aspects you should further examine:
- Financial Health: Does SIRI have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does SIRI’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of SIRI? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NASDAQ every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.