How far off is Tristate Holdings Limited (HKG:458) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This is done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow are will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF (HK$, Millions)||HK$27.8||HK$29.6||HK$31.1||HK$32.5||HK$33.6||HK$34.7||HK$35.6||HK$36.6||HK$37.4||HK$38.3|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Est @ 8.61%||Est @ 6.62%||Est @ 5.24%||Est @ 4.27%||Est @ 3.59%||Est @ 3.11%||Est @ 2.78%||Est @ 2.55%||Est @ 2.38%||Est @ 2.27%|
|Present Value (HK$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.83%||HK$25.7||HK$25.5||HK$24.8||HK$24.0||HK$23.1||HK$22.1||HK$21.0||HK$20.0||HK$19.0||HK$18.0|
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= HK$223.24m
"Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the intial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.8%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = HK$38m × (1 + 2%) ÷ (7.8% – 2%) = HK$670m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = HK$HK$670m ÷ ( 1 + 7.8%)10 = HK$315.57m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is HK$538.82m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of HK$1.98. Relative to the current share price of HK$1.65, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to what it is available for right now. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Tristate Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.876. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Tristate Holdings, There are three additional factors you should further research:
- Financial Health: Does 458 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of 458? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every HK stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.