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# A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Accelya Solutions India Limited (NSE:ACCELYA)

How far off is Accelya Solutions India Limited (NSE:ACCELYA) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

### Is Accelya Solutions India fairly valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

#### 10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 Levered FCF (â‚¹, Millions) â‚¹975.6m â‚¹1.1b â‚¹1.1b â‚¹1.2b â‚¹1.3b â‚¹1.4b â‚¹1.5b â‚¹1.7b â‚¹1.8b â‚¹1.9b Growth Rate Estimate Source Est @ 8.79% Est @ 8.42% Est @ 8.16% Est @ 7.98% Est @ 7.85% Est @ 7.76% Est @ 7.7% Est @ 7.65% Est @ 7.62% Est @ 7.6% Present Value (â‚¹, Millions) Discounted @ 15.91% â‚¹841.7 â‚¹787.2 â‚¹734.6 â‚¹684.3 â‚¹636.7 â‚¹591.9 â‚¹549.9 â‚¹510.7 â‚¹474.2 â‚¹440.2

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= â‚¹6.3b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 10-year government bond rate (7.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 15.9%.

Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 Ã— (1 + g) Ã· (r â€“ g) = â‚¹1.9b Ã— (1 + 7.6%) Ã· (15.9% â€“ 7.6%) = â‚¹25b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = â‚¹â‚¹25b Ã· ( 1 + 15.9%)10 = â‚¹5.66b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is â‚¹11.91b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate of â‚¹798. Relative to the current share price of â‚¹765.75, the company appears about fair value at a 4.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

### Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Accelya Solutions India as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 15.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.973. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

### Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldnâ€™t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Accelya Solutions India, I've compiled three fundamental aspects you should further research:

1. Future Earnings: How does ACCELYA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of ACCELYA? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every IN stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.