How far off is American Vanguard Corporation (NYSE:AVD) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, I am going to take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today’s value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. If you are reading this and its not September 2018 then I highly recommend you check out the latest calculation for American Vanguard by following the link below.
Crunching the numbers
I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To start off with we need to estimate the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. I then discount the sum of these cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate.
5-year cash flow forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||$43.20||$43.12||$43.04||$42.96||$42.88|
|Source||Analyst x1||Est @ -0.19%||Est @ -0.19%||Est @ -0.19%||Est @ -0.19%|
|Present Value Discounted @ 10.99%||$38.92||$35.00||$31.47||$28.30||$25.45|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$159.2m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (2.9%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 11%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$42.9m × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (11% – 2.9%) = US$548.8m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$548.8m ÷ ( 1 + 11%)5 = US$325.7m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$484.9m. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of $15.99. Compared to the current share price of $19, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.
I’d like to point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at American Vanguard as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.141. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. For AVD, I’ve compiled three pertinent factors you should look at:
- Financial Health: Does AVD have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does AVD’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of AVD? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every US stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at email@example.com.