Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of DRDGOLD Limited (NYSE:DRD) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Crunching the numbers
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
|Levered FCF (ZAR, Millions)||ZAR104.3m||ZAR132.5m||ZAR158.7m||ZAR182.0m||ZAR202.1m||ZAR219.4m||ZAR234.4m||ZAR247.5m||ZAR259.2m||ZAR269.9m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Est @ 37.47%||Est @ 27.05%||Est @ 19.75%||Est @ 14.64%||Est @ 11.07%||Est @ 8.57%||Est @ 6.82%||Est @ 5.59%||Est @ 4.73%||Est @ 4.13%|
|Present Value (ZAR, Millions) Discounted @ 8.69%||ZAR96.0||ZAR112.2||ZAR123.6||ZAR130.4||ZAR133.2||ZAR133.1||ZAR130.8||ZAR127.1||ZAR122.4||ZAR117.3|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= ZAR1.2b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.7%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.7%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2029 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = SAR270m × (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (8.7% – 2.7%) = SAR4.7b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)10 = ZARSAR4.7b ÷ ( 1 + 8.7%)10 = ZAR2.02b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ZAR3.25b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value estimate in the company’s reported currency of ZAR47.28. However, DRD’s primary listing is in South Africa, and 1 share of DRD in ZAR represents 0.0678 ( ZAR/ USD) share of OTCPK:DRDG.F, so the intrinsic value per share in USD is $3.21. Relative to the current share price of $3.7, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at DRDGOLD as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.00. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For DRDGOLD, There are three fundamental aspects you should further research:
- Financial Health: Does DRD have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does DRD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of DRD? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every US stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.