U.S. Markets closed
  • S&P 500

    4,395.26
    -23.89 (-0.54%)
     
  • Dow 30

    34,935.47
    -149.06 (-0.42%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    14,672.68
    -105.59 (-0.71%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    2,226.25
    -13.78 (-0.62%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    73.81
    +0.19 (+0.26%)
     
  • Gold

    1,812.50
    -18.70 (-1.02%)
     
  • Silver

    25.55
    -0.23 (-0.90%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.1872
    -0.0024 (-0.20%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    1.2390
    -0.0300 (-2.36%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.3908
    -0.0050 (-0.35%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    109.6500
    +0.1890 (+0.17%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    41,340.39
    +2,353.51 (+6.04%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    955.03
    +5.13 (+0.54%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,032.30
    -46.12 (-0.65%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    27,283.59
    -498.83 (-1.80%)
     

A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL)

·5 min read

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Marvell Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRVL) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Marvell Technology

Is Marvell Technology fairly valued?

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$629.1m

US$945.6m

US$1.55b

US$2.04b

US$2.51b

US$2.92b

US$3.28b

US$3.58b

US$3.83b

US$4.04b

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x8

Analyst x7

Analyst x6

Est @ 31.75%

Est @ 22.82%

Est @ 16.57%

Est @ 12.2%

Est @ 9.14%

Est @ 6.99%

Est @ 5.49%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.6%

US$585

US$817

US$1.2k

US$1.5k

US$1.7k

US$1.9k

US$2.0k

US$2.0k

US$2.0k

US$1.9k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$16b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$4.0b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (7.6%– 2.0%) = US$74b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$74b÷ ( 1 + 7.6%)10= US$36b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$51b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$52.1, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

dcf
dcf

The assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Marvell Technology as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.184. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. For Marvell Technology, we've compiled three further elements you should assess:

  1. Risks: As an example, we've found 1 warning sign for Marvell Technology that you need to consider before investing here.

  2. Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for MRVL's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.