In this article I am going to calculate the intrinsic value of Movado Group Inc (NYSE:MOV) using the discounted cash flows (DCF) model. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Also note that this article was written in March 2018 so be sure check the latest calculation for Movado Group here.
What’s the value?
I will be using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. Generally I like to use analyst consensus estimates for free cash flow, but given that MOV has low analyst coverage with no forecast available, I have extrapolated the most recent reported free cash flow (FCF) based on the average annual revenue growth over the past five years, capped at a reasonable level, and discounted these figures at the cost of equity of 8.49%. This resulted in a present value of 5-year cash flow of US$226.95M. Keen to know how I arrived at this number? Check out our detailed analysis here.
Above is a visual representation of how MOV’s top and bottom lines are expected to move in the future, which should give you some color on MOV’s outlook. Next, I determine the terminal value, which is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. I think it’s suitable to use the 10-year government bond rate of 2.8% as the perpetual growth rate, which is rightly below GDP growth, but more towards the conservative side. The present value of the terminal value after discounting it back five years is US$660.45M.
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$887.39M. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of $38.68, which, compared to the current share price of $31.95, we see that Movado Group is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 17.41% discount to what it is available for right now.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company.
For MOV, there are three fundamental aspects you should further research:
- Financial Health: Does MOV have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does MOV’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of MOV? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the NYSE every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.