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What to Look for in Under Armour Earnings

Chris Lange

Under Armour Inc. (UA) is set to report its third-quarter financial results after the markets open on Tuesday. The consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters call for $0.25 in earnings per share (EPS) and $1.46 billion in revenue. The same period of last year reportedly had EPS of $0.23 and $1.20 billion in revenue.

Some analysts feel that the noise from the Sports Authority bankruptcy is fading as this quarter came to an end. They also feel that Under Armour’s distribution expansion could lead to a top-line reacceleration over the next 12 months to 18 months. They feel that the company is still in the early stages of growth, with Nike and Adidas being seven times and four times larger, respectively.

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Wells Fargo is among analysts that see Under Armour as having strong opportunities to narrow the gap internationally with Nike and Adidas in their footwear and sportswear businesses. The firm also believes that Under Armour is under-earning on margins.

One issue to consider was that Sports Authority had become a significantly smaller piece of Under Armour’s sales. That was down to 3% to 4% of sales, versus a peak of 15% of sales 10 years ago. Still, the firm pointed out that a loss of revenue in that distribution channel should persist into early 2017.

Inventory levels were seen as improving. Inventory growth at Under Armour accelerated every quarter in 2015 and remained at an elevated 40% to 45% growth rate in early 2016. Inventories at Dick’s, which is Under Armour’s biggest customer, exceeded sales growth for three consecutive years. That moderated last quarter and leaner inventory implied strong sell-throughs to the consumer.

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A few analysts weighed in on Under Armour ahead of the earnings report:

  • B. Riley reiterated a Buy rating with a $51 price target.
  • Robert Baird reiterated an Outperform rating.
  • Canaccord Genuity has a Buy rating with a $65 price target.
  • Mizuho has a Buy rating with a $52 price target.
  • Piper Jaffray has a Buy rating with a $44 price target.
  • Morgan Stanley has an Underweight rating with a $31 price target.
  • Barclays reiterated an Overweight rating with a $55 price target.
  • Wells Fargo has an Outperform rating with a $45 price target.
  • Oppenheimer has a Market Perform rating.

So far in 2016, Under Armour has underperformed the broad markets, with the stock down nearly 6%. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock is down about 19%.

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Shares of Under Armour were trading up nearly 1% at $38.29 on Monday, with a consensus analyst price target of $48.28 and a 52-week trading range of $31.61 to $48.77.

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