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Looking for Signs of Recession in the Earnings Data

·2 min read

Including the large number of earnings releases from this morning (August 4th), we now have Q2 results from 410 S&P 500 members or 82% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for the companies that have reported are up +7.8% from the same period last year on +14.8% higher revenues, with 77.3% beating EPS estimates and 68.8% beating revenue estimates.

This is a lower beats percentage for this group of 410 index members relative to what we have seen from the group in other recent periods. In other words, fewer companies are able to beat consensus estimates relative to other recent periods and the magnitude of their beats are also smaller.

On the whole, the tone and substance of management guidance and commentary has been reassuring enough; not great, but not bad either.

On top of inflationary pressures and supply-chain challenges that companies have been dealing with for some time now, we are also hearing a lot more about the negative impact of the strong U.S. dollar and signs of weakness at the lower-income level of consumers.

For example, Kellogg K guided higher this morning, but still referred to the afforementioned headwinds. Booking Holdings BKNG, on the hand, provided weaker guidance as the ‘travel trade’ appears to have started easing.

For more details about the Q earnings season and expectations for the coming periods, please check out our latest earnings note >>>>Apple, Amazon & Big Tech Showcase Their Earnings Power

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