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Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.
Now that we understand what the ESP is and how beneficial it can be, let's dive into a stock that currently fits the bill. Moderna (MRNA) earns a Zacks Rank #3 right now and its Most Accurate Estimate sits at $5.43 a share, just zero days from its upcoming earnings release on May 4, 2022.
MRNA has an Earnings ESP figure of 4.93%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $5.43 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.18.
MRNA is one of just a large database of Medical stocks with positive ESPs. Another solid-looking stock is HEXO (HEXO).
Slated to report earnings on June 13, 2022, HEXO holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is -$0.03 a share 40 days from its next quarterly update.
HEXO's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 33.33% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.05.
MRNA and HEXO's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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