Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist
The Zacks Earnings ESP, or Expected Surprise Prediction, aims to find earnings surprises by focusing on the most recent analyst revisions. The basic premise is that if an analyst reevaluates their earnings estimate ahead of an earnings release, it means they likely have new information that could possibly be more accurate. The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction.
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Marriott International (MAR) earns a Zacks Rank #3 two days from its next quarterly earnings release on May 4, 2022, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.98 a share.
By taking the percentage difference between the $0.98 Most Accurate Estimate and the $0.94 Zacks Consensus Estimate, Marriott International has an Earnings ESP of 3.84%.
MAR is part of a big group of Consumer Discretionary stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Planet Fitness (PLNT) as well.
Planet Fitness is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock, and is getting ready to report earnings on May 10, 2022. PLNT's Most Accurate Estimate sits at $0.33 a share eight days from its next earnings release.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Planet Fitness is $0.27, and when you take the percentage difference between that number and its Most Accurate Estimate, you get the Earnings ESP figure of 22.68%.
MAR and PLNT's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Planet Fitness, Inc. (PLNT) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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