U.S. markets closed
  • S&P 500

    3,825.33
    +39.95 (+1.06%)
     
  • Dow 30

    31,097.26
    +321.83 (+1.05%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    11,127.84
    +99.11 (+0.90%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    1,727.76
    +19.77 (+1.16%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    108.46
    +2.70 (+2.55%)
     
  • Gold

    1,812.90
    +5.60 (+0.31%)
     
  • Silver

    19.77
    -0.51 (-2.50%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.0426
    -0.0057 (-0.54%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    2.8890
    -0.0830 (-2.79%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2103
    -0.0072 (-0.59%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    135.1750
    -0.5530 (-0.41%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    19,245.36
    -22.90 (-0.12%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    420.84
    +0.70 (+0.17%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,168.65
    -0.63 (-0.01%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    25,935.62
    -457.42 (-1.73%)
     

Magnet Forensics Inc. (TSE:MAGT) Shares Could Be 47% Below Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
·6 min read
In this article:
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Magnet Forensics Inc. (TSE:MAGT) as an investment opportunity by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Magnet Forensics

Crunching the numbers

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

US$19.0m

US$20.7m

US$21.5m

US$28.4m

US$35.5m

US$40.5m

US$44.6m

US$48.0m

US$50.8m

US$53.1m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x6

Analyst x6

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Analyst x1

Est @ 13.98%

Est @ 10.25%

Est @ 7.64%

Est @ 5.82%

Est @ 4.54%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 5.9%

US$17.9

US$18.5

US$18.1

US$22.6

US$26.7

US$28.8

US$30.0

US$30.5

US$30.5

US$30.1

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$253m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (1.6%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 5.9%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2031 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$53m× (1 + 1.6%) ÷ (5.9%– 1.6%) = US$1.3b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.3b÷ ( 1 + 5.9%)10= US$712m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$965m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of CA$15.7, the company appears quite undervalued at a 47% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
dcf

Important assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Magnet Forensics as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 5.9%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.012. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Magnet Forensics, we've compiled three fundamental items you should assess:

  1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Magnet Forensics you should be aware of.

  2. Future Earnings: How does MAGT's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Canadian stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.