It's been a mediocre week for Maire Tecnimont S.p.A. (BIT:MT) shareholders, with the stock dropping 17% to €1.67 in the week since its latest full-year results. Revenues were €3.3b, with Maire Tecnimont reporting some -3.1% below analyst expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what top analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what analysts' statutory forecasts suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Maire Tecnimont's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2020 to be €3.28b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to sink 18% to €0.28 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of €3.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.32 in 2020. From this we can that analyst sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a real cut to earnings per share estimates.
It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that analysts have cut their price target 5.4% to €3.24. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Maire Tecnimont at €4.70 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €2.40. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
In addition, we can look to Maire Tecnimont's past performance and see whether business is expected to improve, and if the company is expected to perform better than wider market. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 0.5% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 19% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same market are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 2.2% next year. It's pretty clear that Maire Tecnimont's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern with the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Maire Tecnimont. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Analysts also downgraded their price target, suggesting that the latest news has led analysts to become more pessimistic about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Maire Tecnimont. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Maire Tecnimont going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..
You can also view our analysis of Maire Tecnimont's balance sheet, and whether we think Maire Tecnimont is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.
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