Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) Just Released Its Annual Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates
As you might know, Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:MPC) just kicked off its latest yearly results with some very strong numbers. Results clearly exceeded expectations, with a substantial revenue beat leading to smaller losses in what looks like a definite win for investors. Revenues were US$93b and the statutory loss per share was US$15.28, smaller than the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Marathon Petroleum
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the 13 analysts covering Marathon Petroleum, is for revenues of US$78.4b in 2021, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 15% reduction in Marathon Petroleum's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share statutory losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.095 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$78.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2021. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.
The consensus price target held steady at US$52.25, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Marathon Petroleum at US$66.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$40.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast revenue decline of 15%, a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 11% next year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Marathon Petroleum is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Marathon Petroleum to become unprofitable next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Marathon Petroleum's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Marathon Petroleum analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Marathon Petroleum is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are potentially serious...
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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