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Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know

Zacks Equity Research

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) closed at $64.67 in the latest trading session, marking a -0.72% move from the prior day. This move lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.69%. Elsewhere, the Dow gained 0.22%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.91%.

Coming into today, shares of the refiner had gained 20.81% in the past month. In that same time, the Oils-Energy sector lost 4.48%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.61%.

Wall Street will be looking for positivity from MPC as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be October 31, 2019. In that report, analysts expect MPC to post earnings of $1.30 per share. This would mark a year-over-year decline of 23.53%. Meanwhile, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $31.49 billion, up 36.13% from the year-ago period.

For the full year, our Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $3.83 per share and revenue of $122.16 billion, which would represent changes of -43.51% and +25.8%, respectively, from the prior year.

Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for MPC. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. With this in mind, we can consider positive estimate revisions a sign of optimism about the company's business outlook.

Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. The Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 2.61% lower within the past month. MPC currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

In terms of valuation, MPC is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 17.01. Its industry sports an average Forward P/E of 19.04, so we one might conclude that MPC is trading at a discount comparatively.

It is also worth noting that MPC currently has a PEG ratio of 1.71. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing was holding an average PEG ratio of 2.54 at yesterday's closing price.

The Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing industry is part of the Oils-Energy sector. This industry currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 196, which puts it in the bottom 24% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank includes is listed in order from best to worst in terms of the average Zacks Rank of the individual companies within each of these sectors. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Be sure to follow all of these stock-moving metrics, and many more, on Zacks.com.


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