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A week ago, MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) came out with a strong set of quarterly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. The company beat both earnings and revenue forecasts, with revenue of US$412m, some 6.2% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at US$1.04, 63% ahead of expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from MarineMax's seven analysts is for revenues of US$1.89b in 2021, which would reflect a notable 17% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$4.19, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.85b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.88 in 2021. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for MarineMax 14% to US$45.50on the back of these upgrades. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on MarineMax, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$52.00 and the most bearish at US$37.00 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await MarineMax shareholders.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the MarineMax's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that MarineMax's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12%p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that MarineMax is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards MarineMax following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for MarineMax going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with MarineMax .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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