MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) just released its latest annual results and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.5% to hit US$1.5b. MarineMax reported statutory earnings per share (EPS) US$3.37, which was a notable 20% above what the analysts had forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MarineMax from five analysts is for revenues of US$1.84b in 2021 which, if met, would be a substantial 22% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 4.0% to US$3.60. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$1.47b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.71 in 2021. So we can see there's been a pretty clear increase in sentiment following the latest results, with both revenues and earnings per share receiving a decent lift in the latest estimates.
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for MarineMax 9.1% to US$34.83on the back of these upgrades. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MarineMax at US$40.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$29.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that MarineMax's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 22% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 12%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.1% next year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect MarineMax to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards MarineMax following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on MarineMax. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple MarineMax analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the MarineMax Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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