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Match Group (MTCH) Down 7.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

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A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Match Group (MTCH). Shares have lost about 7.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Match Group due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Match Group Q2 Earnings Decline Y/Y, Revenues Increase

Match Group reported second-quarter 2021 earnings of 46 cents per share, which declined 14.8% from year-ago quarter’s figure. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at 57 cents.

Revenues of $707.8 million increased 27% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate stood at $692.1 million. Continued momentum in Tinder and impressive performances of other apps like Hinge, Pairs and OkCupid drove the top line.

Excluding the effect of foreign exchange, the top line rose 23% year over year to $683.5 million.
Activity and engagement across all brands has been high since the COVID-19 outbreak, especially across western markets. However, the company noted that some of the countries which are important markets like South Korea, India, Brazil, and Japan were witnessing slow COVID recovery.

In Jun 2021, the company concluded the buyout of Hyperconnect, a prominent social discovery and video technology company based in South Korea for $1.725 billion.

Quarter in Details

In the second quarter, number of total payers soared 15% to 15 million. Number of total payers from Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Other increased 16%, 13% and 17%, respectively, on a year-over-year basis.

Total revenue per payer (RPP) increased 10% year over year to $15.5 million. Region wise, RPP from Americas, Europe and APAC and Other increased 8%, 13% and 12%, respectively.

Direct revenues from Americas were up 25% to $374.4 million. Direct revenues from Europe soareds 28% to $196.5 million, while Asia-Pacific (APAC) and others reported 31% increase in direct revenues to $123.4 million.

Direct revenues from Tinder jumped 26% year over year. Total number of payers for Tinder rose 17% year over year to 9.6 million, while Tinder RPP increased 8% in the second quarter.

Direct revenues from non-Tinder brands collectively increased 28% on a year-over-year basis. Non-Tinder brands witnessed 12% growth in total number of payers to 5.4 million as well as 14% increase in RPP.

Match Group added several new features to its Tinder App, which includes video within Tinder Profile for better self-expression. Tinder now has Hot Takes feature that enables members to chat with someone before their profiles match.

To gain a better understanding of the performance of its non-Tinder portfolio, Match Group segregated its portfolio of brands into two separate categories — Established and Emerging brands. Established Brands includes desktop-first brands, which also have moved to mobile platform. Meetic, PlentyOfFish, and OkCupid are some of the noted apps under Established Brands.

Emerging Brands includes brands that have been recently purchased or incubated, noted the company. Emerging Brands portfolio consists of apps like Hinge, Pairs, Chispa, Ablo and Hyperconnect’s Azar as well as Hakuna brands.

In the second quarter, Established and Emerging brands reported year over year direct revenue growth of 13% and 71% respectively.

In the second quarter, revenues from Hinge skyrocketed nearly 150% year over year. The company expects revenues from the app to double in 2021.

Adjusted EBITDA was $263 million, up 15% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 390 basis points (bps) year over year to 37%.

Total operating costs and expenses increased 38% year over year to $497.8 million in the second quarter. The upside can be attributed to increase in cost of revenues, selling and marketing expenses, product development as well as general and administrative expenses.

Total operating costs and expenses, as a percentage of revenues, expanded 500 bps on a year-over-year basis and came in at 70% in the reported quarter.

Operating income advanced 7% from the year-ago quarter’s tally to $209.9 million. Operating margin contracted 560 bps to 30%.

Balance Sheet & Cash Flow

As of Jun 30, 2021, Match Group had cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments balance of $249 million compared with $846 million as of Mar 31, 2021. As of Jun 30, 2021, the company had long-term debt of $3.8 billion compared with $3.8 billion as of Mar 31, 2021.

As of Jun 30, 2021, the company reported $1.7 billion of exchangeable senior notes and had $750 million under its revolving credit facility. The amount was undrawn as of Jun 30.

For the six months ended Jun 30, 2021, the company generated operating cash flow of $351 million and free cash flow was $318 million.

Guidance

Match Group expects third-quarter 2021 revenues of $790 million to $805 million, indicating year-over-year growth of 23-26%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is currently pegged at $739.9 million.

Match Group expects third-quarter 2021 revenues (excluding Hyperconnect) in the range of $735-$745 million.

Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter is anticipated in the range of $275-$280 million.

For 2021, Match Group now expects revenues, including Hyperconnect, in the range of $3-$3.025 billion. Revenues from HyperConnect are expected in the range of $125-$135 million for the year.

For 2021, Match Group expects EBITDA between $1.045 billion and $1.060 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Match Group has an average Growth Score of C, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Match Group has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.


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