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Mathematical Models Predict the Recent Political Insurgencies and Suggest Possible Remedies to the Effect of Social Media

·3 min read

SANTA BARBARA, Calif., Feb. 9, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Aimdyn, Inc., an Artificial Intelligence Research Company in California that uses Machine Learning Algorithms in order to make predictions based on big data has found mathematical evidence of correlations between the current large social media platforms' structure and algorithms, and the increased frequency of political insurgencies like the BLM protests of the last summer and the recent attack on the Capitol.

AI Researchers write papers predicting political insurgencies due to current social media algorithms.

The Social Media platforms provide users with two key elements in their interactions: 1) the ability to connect to people that are distant, but have similar political orientation and feeling of dissatisfaction with the political process (the so-called homophily) and 2) suggestions of content based on users' past content viewing history.

Recent discussions and movies like Social Dilemma tend to emphasize the second aspect. However, two papers written before these events by Aimdyn researchers in collaboration with Criminal Justice professor Jason Gravel from Temple University showed both aspects are the basic ingredients for more frequent and larger insurgencies and political violence based on mathematical models and algorithms used in Artificial Intelligence (AI).

"Algorithms on social media platforms are able to "optimize" homophily—a powerful natural human tendency to associate with similar other—by suggesting content that your friends like even before those friends share that information with you. By sharing content an algorithm has already determined your friends are likely to be interested in, you give legitimacy to that content and to your friends' interest in that content," said Jason Gravel, Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice at Temple University.

"Information and misinformation alike can rapidly permeate pockets of individuals with similar views, unencumbered by geographic, or time constraints. Soon things become "obvious" in some social circles, no matter how farfetched they may seem from the outside looking in. Under these conditions, little to no coordination among actors in a network is necessary for large scale mobilization around an issue," Gravel said.

The models also suggest a possible remedy: a balancing of suggested content and suggested network associates, similar to the fairness doctrine of the United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC), introduced in 1949 and abandoned in 1987.

The results could thus be used to inform future decisions made by the tech giants in order to move in a direction less susceptible to huge political outbursts.


Aimdyn Inc is an AI and ML Research company based in Santa Barbara, CA. It has a long history of ML and AI development and analysis with predictive capabilities, applied to large societal issues, from damage control for the Gulf Oil Spill to mapping out the spread of the current COVID-19 pandemic.

To learn more about Aimdyn Inc. and these projects, visit www.aimdyn.com

Research Papers:

M. Fonoberova, I. Mezic, J. Mezic, J. Hogg, J. Gravel. "Small-world networks and synchronisation in an agent-based model of civil violence", Global Crime, 20:3-4, 161-195, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1080/17440572.2019.1662304

M. Fonoberova, I. Mezic, J. Mezic, R. Mohr. "An agent-based model of urban insurgence: Effect of gathering sites and Koopman mode analysis", PLOS ONE 13(10): e0205259, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0205259


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