As news of tumult in the White House continues to shock the world, users on betting sites are growing near certain that the President Donald Trump is headed back to his glass and gold tower.
Based on the most recent influx of bets placed on U.K.-based Ladbrokes, users seem to see a 60% chance that Trump will not last his first term in office, according to Matthew Shaddick, the head of political betting over at Ladbrokes. That’s up from 25% immediately following the November elections.
“There's virtually no one betting on him to not be impeached - in total, literally a single figure amount,” wrote Lee Price, a representative for Betfair.
That comes as the term “impeachment” has grown in notoriety over the past few days, as speculations over Trump’s motivations for firing once-FBI Director James Comey continue to heat up.
But getting in on the bets now might not be worth it -- even if the president is impeached.
If right after the November elections, a bettor decided to bet on Trump’s impeachment within the first term. And say the bettor was a fan of Tesla, and had been saving up for the car maker’s highly anticipated mass market Model 3 vehicle, quoted at $35,000 a piece. The bettor would have needed to put in just $2,200 to make the Model 3’s worth back in full -- or about $16 for every $1 bet -- though he or she would only reap those winnings if Trump were indeed impeached.
The bet though is far less sweet now. If the same bettor decided to stake his or her funds on Trump’s impeachment, the bettor would need to put in $35,000 on Betfair to earn back the Model 3’s payment in full. In short, $1 for $1.
Even at the height of the Monica Lewinsky scandal, bettors didn’t think President Bill Clinton was as likely to be impeached. At that time, a $1 bet would reap $6 in return.
But how likely an impeachment is can’t really be judge based on the betting markets.
Most bettors are Ladbrokes are not from the U.S. Moreover, most are amateur hobbyists, said Shaddick.
“There’s been a lot of talk of removing the sitting president,” Shaddick said. “[Bettors] are likely overreacting to the latest piece of news. ”
Moreover, the odds vary from betting site to betting site, with bettors on Predict-It seeing a much lower, 30% chance of impeachment.
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