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Do Medifast's (NYSE:MED) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

·4 min read

The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even companies that have no revenue, no profit, and a record of falling short, can manage to find investors. But the reality is that when a company loses money each year, for long enough, its investors will usually take their share of those losses. A loss-making company is yet to prove itself with profit, and eventually the inflow of external capital may dry up.

If this kind of company isn't your style, you like companies that generate revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in Medifast (NYSE:MED). While this doesn't necessarily speak to whether it's undervalued, the profitability of the business is enough to warrant some appreciation - especially if its growing.

View our latest analysis for Medifast

Medifast's Earnings Per Share Are Growing

Generally, companies experiencing growth in earnings per share (EPS) should see similar trends in share price. So it makes sense that experienced investors pay close attention to company EPS when undertaking investment research. Impressively, Medifast has grown EPS by 33% per year, compound, in the last three years. If the company can sustain that sort of growth, we'd expect shareholders to come away satisfied. EPS growth figures have also been helped by share buybacks, showing the market that the company is in a position of financial strength, allowing it to return capital to shareholders.

Top-line growth is a great indicator that growth is sustainable, and combined with a high earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) margin, it's a great way for a company to maintain a competitive advantage in the market. On the revenue front, Medifast has done well over the past year, growing revenue by 31% to US$1.7b but EBIT margin figures were less stellar, seeing a decline over the last 12 months. So if EBIT margins can stabilize, this top-line growth should pay off for shareholders.

The chart below shows how the company's bottom and top lines have progressed over time. Click on the chart to see the exact numbers.

earnings-and-revenue-history
earnings-and-revenue-history

Of course the knack is to find stocks that have their best days in the future, not in the past. You could base your opinion on past performance, of course, but you may also want to check this interactive graph of professional analyst EPS forecasts for Medifast.

Are Medifast Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Investors are always searching for a vote of confidence in the companies they hold and insider buying is one of the key indicators for optimism on the market. This view is based on the possibility that stock purchases signal bullishness on behalf of the buyer. However, insiders are sometimes wrong, and we don't know the exact thinking behind their acquisitions.

Despite US$200k worth of sales, Medifast insiders have overwhelmingly been buying the stock, spending US$706k on purchases in the last twelve months. You could argue that level of buying implies genuine confidence in the business. Zooming in, we can see that the biggest insider purchase was by Lead Independent Director Jeffrey Brown for US$499k worth of shares, at about US$127 per share.

Along with the insider buying, another encouraging sign for Medifast is that insiders, as a group, have a considerable shareholding. To be specific, they have US$27m worth of shares. This considerable investment should help drive long-term value in the business. While their ownership only accounts for 1.8%, this is still a considerable amount at stake to encourage the business to maintain a strategy that will deliver value to shareholders.

Does Medifast Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?

If you believe that share price follows earnings per share you should definitely be delving further into Medifast's strong EPS growth. Not only that, but we can see that insiders both own a lot of, and are buying more shares in the company. Astute investors will want to keep this stock on watch. What about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Medifast you should know about.

There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. So if you like the sound of Medifast, you'll probably love this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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