Today Cyprus's banks are due to reopen for the first time since March16, after the government initially struck a deal to tax bank deposits in exchange for a Eur 10 billion bailout form euro zone peers and the IMF.
According to Cyprus's central bank, the opening has been set for noon. The expectations are for a lot of people to go there and start shouting for their money.
And what if Cypriots will surrender themselves to the fact that part of their savings are gone? and we will not assist to any "fight for money"?
In the meantime, on this side of the Mediterranean sea Mr Bersani, whose party and its allies emerged with a majority in the lower house of Parliament but not in the equally powerful Senate, is to report back to the Italian president. If he can't muster support, Mr. Napolitano could decide to ask a technocrat or other respected figure to attempt to win backing of enough lawmakers. If no one succeeds in forming a government, fresh elections could be inevitable. But even that would be difficult; the term of the president, who has the power to dissolve the Parliament, is to expire mid-May.
But I would be really careful in declaring "Italy is on the edge of a collapse". Italy is the land of the "terrible eve", but it has always been able to find a last minute solution. The market is waiting the Moody's downgrade in cue, do you remember what happened last time that Italy has been downgraded? the market rallied...
Thus the outcome is far from certain. The rating agencies' pressure will work as an attractor between the political parties to avert a downward spiral whose end is unknown.
The image we got is of a Mediterranean sea on fire. What if the image depicted the worst case scenario and a more mild one presented itself?
At times a big fire, if looked from far enough, it's just a sparkle. At times a sparkle, if looked close enough, it's a blaze.